Pro punter preview, best bet & value play

The $175,000 Listed Carlyon Stakes is the feature event on the card at this Saturday’s Moonee Valley meeting. The race is run over 1000 metres at set weights, with horses four years and older eligible.

Listed Carlyon Stakes 2022: Trevor Lawson’s preview

Track The rail goes out to 5 metres from 3 metres at the last meeting. You’ll want to be on the speed as usual, but all in all it should play pretty even. As always, a lot depends on the weather, so keep an eye on the pattern earlier in the meeting if we get significant rain.

Speed Esta La Roca from inside and Yulong Command from out wide will go forward. Generation and Oxley Road should also go forward, so the pace will be pretty good.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

4 EXTREMELY LUCKY [$3] has won its past two, running the quickest splits of the day both times. Has a huge finish and will be suited by the pace. The horse to beat.

2 GENERATION [$5.50] resumes here off a short break. His best rating was around this track last spring. A rough chance for mine.

9 SHOWMANSHIP [$5.50] resumes here. It’s his first start over this trip since winning on debut. The inside draw is a slight concern, and I would prefer over further

5 BELLA NIPOTINA [$8] also resumes here and has a good record fresh. She also has a good record here at The Valley and gets Williams. Good chance if runs here (also nominated in Sydney).

11 ESTA LA ROCA [$11] is an honest horse who will sit on the pace here. She can handle the wet. Has rough claims.

1 OXLEY ROAD [$13] was disappointing first-up but has trialled twice since very well. He should be fully fit and can bounce back to his best.

10 MILEVA [$15] ran well first-up then was not suited over the 1200 metres. She’s better suited at this trip and can get a cheap run from a good draw.

3 ROCH ’N’ HORSE [$18] was the Newmarket winner at big odds who then failed in The Everest. She has some claims here.

8 MOSSMAN GORGE [$21] isn’t good enough to win this.

13 THE MOVE [$21] is hard to line up here. He’s been racing well in Queensland. The market will be the best guide.

12 BLESS HER [$31] put in a solid effort first-up and has a reasonable record at this trip. She can handle the wet and has rough claims

Betting strategy

Top pick Extremely Lucky
Best value Bella Nipotina

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