Multi cash out or let it ride? Champion Bets

multi cash out bonus bets
multi cash out bonus bets

The early “multi cash out” feature has made its way across most of the major bookmakers.

In fact, you can even cash out on many single bets now.  I don’t know why you’d want to, but your friendly bookmaker will give you the option: with another clip of the ticket, of course!

The main thing to remember with most bookmaker gimmicks is that they’re generally aimed at the punters with whom they most want to engage: the mugs.  The casual punter who doesn’t know (or probably care) about the concept of long-term value.

As a more serious punter, you should be looking at a consistent approach which, over time, will produce the most value.  As you’re taking a long-term view, the wins and losses (variance) will even out and you’ll be better off.

Multi cash out: example

Four leg multis on soccer are very popular due to the number of “3 out of 4” offers around.  We’ll assume we’ve already nailed our first three legs and have a cash-out offer prior to the last.

Bet: four-leg multi, $100 stake, price $7.30

Situation: 3/3 winners, alive into last leg (Crystal Palace to defeat Wolves)

Last leg: Crystal Palace $1.60, Draw $4.50, Wolves $5.00

Cash-out offer: $440

So your options are as follows:

Option 1, cash out: $440 collect, $340 profit

Option 2, let it ride: win ($730 collect, $630 profit) or lose (zero collect)

Multi cash out: the value equation

We know that the bookies rate Crystal Palace a $1.60 chance, which equates to a 62.5% chance of winning (1 / 1.6). We’ll use 60% to allow for the bookies margin.  So in mathematical terms, and at the bookie’s ratings, your real choice is between $340 cash (option 1), or a 60% chance of $630: $378 (option 2).

There you can see the value the bookies generate when punters elect to cash out.  A totally ‘fair’ cash out offer at their own odds would be $378.  They may have dozens of punters with the same offer: the more that take up the lower $340 amount, the better off they’ll be in a mathematical sense.

The value bet is clearly to let it ride.  As always, the key to value is in the long-term: in that if you were presented with this exact situation many times over, ‘letting it ride’ is clearly the most profitable option.

If you use this calculation each time you’re considering a ‘cash out’ offer from a bookie, you’ll see the value you’re getting (or more accurately, losing) each time.

Multi cash out: rated prices

That’s fairly straightforward, however things change if your own ratings are more accurate than the bookmaker’s (which they need to be, if you are to be a successful punter).  For example, you may assess Crystal Palace’s true odds as $1.45, with the associated adjustments to the odds for the draw or the Bournemouth win.  That’ll obviously change the figures and allow you to assess you own true value, rather than the bookmaker’s.

Multi cash out: racing

Nick Aubrey is a former actuary who takes an extremely mathematical approach to his punting.  We’ve spoken to him before on the Betting 360 Podcast.

The basic concept of the ‘cash out’ is the same with a racing quaddie as a sports multi, except in a horse race, there’s usually far more outcomes (potential winners).

“My overriding rule is that it’s all about the price,” Nick explains.

“If you think the cash-out amount is better than your expected return (your estimated chance of collect, multiplied by your full payout) then cash out.

“If the last leg is a race field (eg quaddie), then cashing out is equivalent to having a field bet on the last leg.

“So you are betting on every runner, some of which you would never want to back.

“In this circumstance, a hedge (side) bet on those runners which you haven’t taken in your original bet BUT you think have got a chance would be a better strategy.

“The hedge bet(s) could just be to cover your total outlay so that you are profit neutral on these runners, but still can win big on your original bets.”

Pro-punter Cameron O’Brien knows how to find value winners at big prices. He’s done it time and time again for his Key Bets members. They get all of Cameron’s tips from right across Australia, including stake, recommended price and runner comments.