Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, previews Saturday’s Rosehill meeting, with horse racing tips and analysis for all 10 races. Good luck, punters!
Track Condition: Heavy 10
Rail Position: True entire
INVINCIBLE KISS is a bit in and out but when she is on, as she was two starts back, she can out kick these. The 2kg claim helps her and she is down in class. Will run on.
LORD ZOULANDER looks nicely placed. He will go hard early and lead these. And being 3rd up he can swing in front, kick off the bend and will take catching.
ESTEEMED LADY is classy enough at this level and is racing in career best form. Is 4th up here and has placed in all three runs. Looks nicely placed.
Tip: LORD ZOULANDER
I do think this race and the track now will help QUEEN OF THE BALL. From the gate she drives to the lead and will kick as they turn. Will be very well hard to beat.
MAGIC CARPET finishes hard and she looks nicely placed at this trip. Off the inside draw she can be 6th for home having spent no juice. Should run on hard.
SHE’S EXTREME might be well abide average. Yet to win in two starts but the way she attacked the line last start when a great 2nd to the smart Fireburn was a great trial for this.
Tip: QUEEN OF THE BALL
This looks a strong race, and a fascinating race. SWEET RIDE is very fast and has won 2 from 3 thus far. Will go hard and vie for the front with RISE OF THE MASSES who is also super slick and now very fit. They may burn themselves out. But, if they allow each other to race fairly both have talent.
Their speed battle will set it up nicely for MAGIC who may go on next week and win the Golden Slipper. He is very, very strong late and will be rattling home. Big danger.
How do you stop ELLSBERG? He is just too fast early, controls the speed and just keep banging away. That’s how he won a similar race to this first-up. Big show again. Looks the pace.
BRUTALITY chased him home last start. Was well back and made good ground to finish 2nd and as also resuming. Gets 2.5kg turnaround too so rates highly.
JUST FOLK is up from Victoria and is down in grade on recent very good efforts. Absolutely loves it wet, is 3rd up and looks the one to beat.
Tip: 1. JUST FOLK
Tough race. What a meteoric rise up the grades RULE OF LAW has had. So well placed each start by Bjorn Baker he has now won 7 from 11 starts and his last 5 on the trot. Carries big weights, sits up on speed, loves it wet and kicks away. Faultless and can do it again here.
SHELBY SIXTYSIX ran past the great Nature strip late last start in the mud. It was a run of a lifetime by him. Down in class here and a long way down in weights. On that run, he wins this easily, but it may well have been an anomaly. Does absolutely love the mud though. Must be respected.
GRAVINA is smart and on the rise. Is very honest and won well in weaker grade when resuming. Will love this light weight.
Tip: 1. RULE OF LAW
Tough race as they all are short of the obvious potential they all have. CAPE BRETON looks progressive. His win in an easier race when resuming over 1400m was very strong. If he brings that here he runs well.
NEVER BEEN KISSED is fast and if left alone in front will take a lot of running down. Led when resuming in the Gr 1 Surround and wilted late. Is fitter now and this is easier.
FANGIRL is outstanding and is trained here. She has power late and should win this.
Tip: 1. FANGIRL
GREAT HOUSE ran a super race to grab 5th in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup last prep. He then won the Hotham Hcp. Resumed last start over 1900m here when a great 4th in the Parramatta Cup. Is a good horse who can win this.
MOUNT POPA may have a say in that though. He’s down in grade on most recent starts and will notice and appreciate that. Bound to dash late.
SKY LAB is the query horse. Too good for these at his best and last start looked like he might be back there with a stunning win. Watch market.
Tip: 1. MOUNT POPA
What a good contest. It’s always a great race and this year with so many potential leaders it will be a beauty. LIGHTHOUSE is very honest, is a Gr 1 performer and is on the quick back-up from last week when a brave 2nd in the Gr 1 Canterbury Stakes. Not won at this trip but runs like she will get it.
HINGED is very game and she showed that last start when revelling in the heavy ground she beat her vaunted stablemate Espiona in the Gr 1 Surround Staes. Big show again.
PROMISE OF SUCCESS is so honest. Just gets out and does the job. Runner-up at past two and is super fit with no weight to carry here. Has claims.
ESPIONA hasn’t lived up to her early promise this time up but is on home track here and is in the race she has been set for. May very well destroy this field now 3rd up.
Tough race to work out. NEW ARRANGEMENT resumed with a useful 7th in same grade. Last campaign was always thereabouts at this level. On home track here and a watch on his betting is recommended.
KATALIN has very impressive and imposing first-up record and resumes here. Enough said, just rattles home.
MA AND PA was showing great heart last prep and looks a likely progressive type. Resumes here but watch betting moves.
CANASTA will lead and if left alone, will kick off the bend and take catching. Is extremely fit.
BENAUD has class and has needed his two runs to get him right. Big grey horse who will power home late.
FOREVER YOU is up a mile in class but she has streeted her rivals at past two starts and deserves crack at these.
Tip: 1. BENAUD