Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1 Randwick Doncaster Mile with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps on this very heavy track and assesses the race. Good luck, punters!
T: James Cummings /J: James McDonald (56kg)
So honest and such a quality miler. Finished brilliantly to win this race with 53kg last year beating Icebath and Dalasan. Has raced well since and his runs this campaign have been sound. After winning at Gr 2 level ran a pair of 5th placings in the Gr 1 Australian Cup then last start in the All Star Mile. Sure to fly late.
T: Mick Price & Michael Kent/ J: Hugh Bowman (55.5kg)
Brilliant miler. Won the $7m Golden Eagle over 1500m and the Gr 1 Toorak over this trip last prep. This time around, was so strong late when 2nd in the $5m All Star Mile to Zaaki last start. More than capable of winning this.
T: Joe Pride / J: Regan Bayliss (54kg)
Outstanding in the mud and a brilliant miler having swept down the outside to claim the Gr 1 Epsom late last year this trip. Does rise 1.5kg for this. Recent form from 2 starts this time up have been better than they look on paper with a 3rd in Gr 1 Canterbury Stakes over 1300m and a 5th on a biased tracked at Gr 1 level last start. Can win this.
T: Leon McDonald & Andrew Gluyas / J: Chad Schofield (53.5kg)
Winner of $3.2million and has placed in the Gr 1 Doncaster last year and the Gr 1 Epsom both here over this trip. Not going as well this time up but is capable and will appreciate the lighter weight.
T: Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace / J: Damian Lane (53kg)
Outstanding run last start when way too good under 56kg in the Coolmore at Gr 1 level on a very heavy track. Boasts brilliant heavy track form and is in rare touch right now. Terrible draw so may have to go right back but will be running on.
T: Annabel Neasham/ J: Tommy Berry (53kg)
Interesting galloper. Yet to win at this trip – that’s a massive against him but he likes it wet and he was very game under 58.5kg when 3rd to Forbidden Love at Gr 1 level last start in the 1500m George Ryder. Drawn to get a great run. If he can run a mile right out he is a player.
T: Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou / J: Tim Clark (52.5kg) half over
Must be considered. He will be just behind the pace all the way and is drawn to get all the favours. Is well up to this level, is extremely consistent and he is super fit. Runs well in the mud too. Big chance.
T: Danny O’Brien / J: Willy Pike (51.5kg)
Is brilliant and beat the great Zaaki at this trip two starts back. Gets back but is reunited with her fav jock here and is now extremely fit. Has won on soft tracks but untried in the heavy. BUT, is very strong, runs on and has no weight to carry. Looms large.
T: Chris Waller / J: – (51.5kg)
Brilliant mare on her day but hates the mud and that will be there for this race. If dry, she wins.
T: Brad Widdup / J: Fred Kersely (52kg) half over
Is very classy on her day and did flash home hard to just miss when 2nd in this race last year. Not racing as well this time up but likes it damp.
T: Paul Perry /J: Kathy O’Hara (51.5kg)
Is enigmatic but when he wants to he can really fly late. Has beaten Duais in his time and his three starts this time up have been handy. Down in weight here, loves this trip and if Kathy can get him out he can run on at massive odds.
T: Daniel Morton / J: Alysha Collett (51kg)
Is just a really good, honest try all day mare who can really dash home late. Has a few Gr 1 placings under her belt and the way she rounded them up to win in good time over 1400m at Gr 3 level last start at Flemington was a great effort. Is fitter now, drawn perfectly and may test these.
T: Annabel Neasham / J: Robbie Dolan (51kg)
Irish galloper who gets in here well with no weight but hasn’t done much in two Aussie starts to date and this will test. Does like it wet though.
T: Team Hawkes / J: Brock Ryan (51kg)
Looked strong when beaten a lip by the great Anamoe at level weights in the 1400m Hobartville, but the found two heavy tracks and wasn’t as effective. Very wet here too and drawn wide. May find it too hard.
T: Joe Pride/ J: Jay Ford (51kg)
Is very fit, is on the quick back-up and is a Gr 2 winner here over this trip, but looks tested against this field from this gate on a heavy track.
T: Team Freedman / J: Jamie Kah (50kg)
Is just a superstar in the mud and looks the one here too. The trip might actually be her only issue as she hasn’t won at this distance but, she has been a machine at past 3 runs, two of them at Gr 1 level. Just feels so at home in the wet and probably presses forward. If she leads without a rival, she will put a space in these. Big danger.
T: Josh Julius / J: Dean Holland (50kg)
Is a Gr 2 winner on a wet track over this trip. And is a Sydney winner from her solid win on a heavy at Gr 2 level over Ellsberg last start. Significant to note, have never been beaten from 3 starts on a heavy track and drawn well enough.
T: Chris Waller / J: Linda Meech (50kg)
Good solid handicapper who can handle the mud and finished 3rd to Just Folk recently but this is too rich.
T: Team Hayes / J: Craig Williams (51kg) one over
Has lots of talent and is weighted to win this. Should come up here from Melbourne very fit and loves this trip. Has won 4 times on a soft track but yet to race on a heavy. Probably drops back and hopes to run on here but his 4th to Zaaki last start with 59kg was impressive.
T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / J: Rachel King (49.5kg)
Has loads of ability. Is on home track where from 4 starts to date he has won 2 (one at Gr 1 level) and placed twice. Loves it heavy and is very fit. This formula used by TJ Smith and now Gai and Adrian of bringing a 2000m horse back with no weight in a Gr 1 mile has proven very effective in the past. Perfectly drawn too so sits about 6th with cover and looks a very, very big danger here.
T: Michael Moroney / J: Teo Nugent (50kg)
New Zealander who has no weight and loves the mud. Ran a slashing 4th with 59kg to Forbidden Love last start over 1500m making ground late. Can sneak a place.
T: Rob Griffiths & Mat de Kock / J: – (50kg)
Not racing well enough to trouble these.
T: Will Clarken / J: Linda Meech (50kg)