Boxing Tips & Preview – Canelo Álvarez V Gennady Golovkin III

Get your boxing tips for Sunday’s super middleweight blockbuster, with a swag of belts on the line as Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin complete their fight trilogy.

14:00 (AEST), Sun 18th Sep @ T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Career records: 

  • Alvarez – 57-2-2 (39 by KO/TKO)
  • Golovkin – 42-1-1 (37 by KO/TKO)

Last bouts: 

  • Alvarez lost to Dmitry Bivol – Unanimous Decision – September 17, 2022
  • Golovkin def Ryota Murata – Rd 9 TKO – April 9, 2022

Final thoughts: The third encounter between 32-year-old Mexican Alvarez and 40-year-old Kazakhstani Golovkin has been four years in the making.

The pair fought out a memorable, controversial split draw in 2017, before Alvarez won a majority decision in another desperately close bout a year later in another contentious result. Canelo, a classic counterpuncher, took a more aggressive approach into the rematch and landed more power punches than Golovkin.

The latter clash represented the maiden loss of ‘GGG’s’ career. He won the vacant IBF and IBO middleweight titles with a decision over Sergiy Dervyanchenko in 2019, defeated Kamil Szeremeta in his only 2020 fight and ended a 16-month ring hiatus in April this year with a ninth-round TKO of Ryota Murata.

The only losses of Alvarev’s glittering 61-fight pro tenure came when surrendered the WBC light middleweight title to Floyd Mayweather in 2013, and in his most recent bout, a 12-round decision to Dmitry Bivol in May when he moved back up to the light heavyweight ranks.

Canelo was busy in throughout 2021 in the super middleweight division, defeating Avni Yildirim, Billy Joe Saunders (both RTD) and Caleb Plant (Rd 11 TKO) to retain the WBA (Super), WBC, WBO, and The Ring super middleweight titles.

Alvarez’s dominance since last facing Golovkin sees him installed as a red-hot $1.23 favourite to conclude the trilogy in triumphant fashion.

But GGG has several attributes working in his favour for a potential $4.20 upset result. Golovkin’s trademarks are his work-rate in the ring and his power punching, which complements his outstanding technical boxing ability.

Alvarev, fifth in the pound-for-pound rankings across all divisions, likes to pick his spots – and a record of 39 knockouts in 57 wins is testament to that strategy. But Bivol provided a blueprint for Golovkin: if the busy veteran (no slouch himself with 37 knockouts in 42 wins) can withstand Canelo’s attack, he’ll be a good chance of earning the judges’ favour. GGG has already gone the distance twice with Alvarev – and was unlucky not to come away with a victory on both occasions.

Neither fighter has been knocked out in the respective illustrious careers.

Ultimately, though, Canelo looks to be at the peak of his career, with a significant advantage in speed and power over his ageing opponent. He’s spent much more time in the ring over the past couple of years than Golovkin.

While it should be much closer than the head-to-head market suggests, Alvarez has edge and a win by decision looks good value.

Tip: Method of Victory – Alvarez by Points or Decision @ $1.94