AFL – Round 19 in Review

Round 19 of the 2022 AFL season saw the year’s best finish, the year’s first draw, and a new premiership favourite emerge.

Here’s how it looked for punters: 

Billy brilliance gives Pies nine straight

How do they keep doing it?

Collingwood registered their NINTH win on the trot in the most incredible fashion on Sunday afternoon — Jamie Elliott converting from the tightest of angles on the 50m arc, after the siren, to secure a four-point win over rivals Essendon. The Pies ($1.70 pre-game favourites) shot out to an early 37-point lead before the tides completely shifted; Essendon pushing out to a 20-point lead early in the final term. But, as Craig McRae’s men keep doing in 2022, they chipped away. And with Elliott’s ice-cold conversion that’ll be remembered in AFL circles for years, they’ve won nine on the bounce. Most incredibly, seven of their last eight wins have been by 11 points or less. It’s a mark of their strange-yet-brilliant season that despite sitting at a more-than-healthy 13-5, their percentage is just 106.2. The Pies are also now serious AFL Top 4 hopes. Since the start of their nine-win-run, they’ve shortened from $26 into $3.00 with Palmerbet in that market.

New top seed

After 19 rounds, we finally have a new premiership favourite in 2022.

Since pre-season, the spot has been occupied by reigning premiers Melbourne. However since the bye rounds Geelong has been closing the gap on a weekly basis. And, after a tough win on the road against Port Adelaide, the Cats are now officially the ‘team to beat’ as $3.25 AFL Premiership favourites. The performance contrasted with Melbourne who, when the going got tough, succumbed to the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night (despite starting $1.60 favourites). There’s now serious questions being asked of Melbourne’s ability to go back-to-back in 2022. Another loss sees them out to $3.80.

Swans’ charge continues

There’s also a new third seed in 2022.

Sydney’s strong recent form continued in Round 19, with a 33-point win over Adelaide (that saw them just miss covering the pre-game line of -37.5 with Palmerbet). It’s the fourth win in five games for John Longmire’s men, who have put themselves in the box seat for a Top 4 finish with one of the AFL’s most forgiving draws in the run home. In fact, in just three weeks (after wins over the Dogs, Dockers and Crows), the Bloods have shortened from $3.75 into $1.40 to finish in the double-chance spots. More of note, they’re now the third-favourite for the AFL premiership. Since a Round 16 upset defeat to Essendon, Sydney have shortened from $18 into $8.