The Rosebud: Expert preview, top pick and value bet

Tancred Stakes

The Rosebud is a $160,000 Listed race run at Rosehill Racecourse. Run over 1100 metres in early to mid August, the race attracts sprinters and is often used by connections looking to aim their gallopers at a big spring campaign.

The Rosebud 2022: Alfie’s preview

Track It’s been posted as a Soft 5 early. There’s a few showers around, so it will more than likely stay somewhere around that.

Speed map The pace is only fast here. Psychiatrist and Sweet Ride will want to try and cross and lead, as will Troach. Kibou should get a nice run and sit in behind the speed.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

5 Kibou [$3.30] put in a pretty solid trial leading into this. He’s first-up off 56 days. I have it as the one to beat… I’m just hoping 1100m isn’t too sharp for him now.

3 Spacewalk [$4.80] has had three trials leading into this. In the last one he finished 3rd to Malkovich and Snapdancer, so should be fit enough. With JMac on is a big chance. He knocked off the smart Alpha One to win his maiden, and he has the pace to knock over Kibou.

1 Sebonack [$4.80] was disappointing in the Golden Slipper in the autumn. He finished five lengths behind Spacewalk in a recent trial. But if they overdo it up front, he can come home fast later.

7 Miss Hellfire [$7.50] is a chance and should get a trail behind the speed. But I think one of the top three here would have to come back undone for her to knock them off.

11 Zoukerino [$6] had a big win in a maiden but is now up in class. I have it longer than the current odds.

9 Contemporary [$20] is another one coming from a maiden win. This will be too tough for him.

6 Troach [$21] is coming in off a win and should be fit, but this is another step up in class for him.

The others aren’t up to this for mine: 10 Psychiatrist [$81],12 Fire And Ice [$81], 4 Voldemort [$41] and 2 Sweet Ride [$21]

Betting strategy

Top pick Kibou

Value bets Spacewalk

I’ll definitely be keeping any outlay on this race very small and will be dictated by the yard and late market moves. At the moment I have Kibou on top but no real value, but can see Spacewalk as a major threat and a bit of value at the current price. I’d want to see all these in the yard before outlaying money.

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