Here is a very simple yet powerful equation that explains the path to betting profits:
Profitability = Reality – Perception
Betting profits come from the difference between what the market expects to happen and what actually happens.
Odds of $5 represent a 20% winning chance. That means the only way to achieve profitability at those odds is to win more than 20% of your bets.
Or you can look at it another way using a standard coin toss. We know that in the long run a fair coin will come up 50% heads and 50% tails.
But assume for a moment that the public perceived heads as a better bet. So it was priced at $1.90, and tails was $2.10.
So the difference between the reality (tails will win at 50%) and the perception (odds of $2.10 represents a 47.6% probability expectation) is the profitability.
The only way you can succeed as a punter is by finding these pockets of betting profits. You must identify whatever is undervalued by the betting market, relative to its positive effect on performance.
Finding betting profits
The typical form factors that are widely published and understood are highly unlikely to be a source of consistent betting profits. Because their importance and influence is already ‘baked into the cake’ – that being, their impact on probability is already reflected in the price. So being a last start winner, or drawing a ‘good’ barrier, or coming from a strong stable, or having the best winning strike-rate are (in isolation) not valid reasons to be backing a horse. You will back your fair share of winners, but you won’t be making any withdrawals from your bookie.
If you do the same thing every Saturday then it’s only common sense that your results won’t change by anything other than variance. Some days you will enjoy random luck, but most months and certainly each year you will finish behind.
To go beyond backing winners and actually achieve betting profits, it’s essential that you:
- Go deeper and / or wider into the form to find under-rated factors
- Value the value above all else
- Fall in love with a price rather than a horse
- Be comfortable opposing the market
- Appreciate that if you are consistently finding value, the betting profits will follow
Punt like a pro with Trevor Lawson’s Melbourne Ratings.
As well as a full set of rated prices, speed maps and suggested bets, you can spend each and every raceday with a pro punter: the Melbourne Ratings Live Page gives you direct access to Trev himself to ask whatever you like.
If you’re keen to win, it’s the only way to punt.