Runner-by-runner pro punter preview and tip

Flemington Quaddie tips, australian cup, betting podcast
Flemington Quaddie tips, australian cup, betting podcast

The Australian Cup is a Group 1 weight-for-age race over 2000 metres at Flemington during the Autumn Carnival.

From the race’s inaugural running in 1863 until 1942, it was a long-distance event over 3600 metres. The race steadily decreased in distance over the next twenty years to its current 2000 metres. This was to attract higher quality middle-distance horses, and it certainly had the desired effect. The list of winners of the Australian Cup since 1979 includes Dulcify, Ming Dynasty, Bonecrusher, Vo Rogue, Better Loosen Up, Let’s Elope, Saintly, Octagonal, Northerly and Makybe Diva.

Total prizemoney for the Australian Cup is $1.5 million.

Australian Cup 2022: Trevor Lawson’s preview

This is a race with a great history that has unfortunately fallen away in recent years. This isn’t a great quality affair. There looks to be a lack of true Group 1 horses here, really, and there’s a few that are past their prime.

But the bookies still pay the same and I’m keen to back one, so let’s get into it!

Track

The rail is out 5 metres. There’s no rain predicted and winds are light, so it should all play very well – there’s nothing to suggest otherwise.

Speed

Things are a bit speculative in terms of the map. Callsign Mav probably goes forward. Yonkers goes forward, Think It Over sits handy with Delphi, and Spanish Mission probably goes forward from the barrier too.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport, correct at time of publication.

THINK IT OVER [$2.90] went out flying last prep and came back with a career peak in the Apollo Stakes. He failed on the wet track in the Chipping Norton, but third-up here at 2000m is perfect. He gets the right run here and is the horse to beat.

SPANISH MISSION [$4.60] put in a terrific run in the Melbourne Cup then failed after that. He returned well in the Carlyon Cup, should get natural improvement and gets McDonald on here. Definitely looks the danger to the favourite.

DUAIS [$7.50] won the Coongy in the Spring over this trip. She put in a solid run last start second-up in the Chipping Norton, behind Verry Elleegant. She’ll be fitter here but she’s only a rough chance for mine.

CASCADIAN [$8] had every possible chance last start in the Peter Young, and though he won I think he ran to his limit. Not sure he has another level in him for this.

SHE’S IDEEL [$9.50] produced a peak rating in the Chipping Norton behind Verry Elleegant, albeit on a heavy track. She gets Kah on, but her best form looks to be on wet tracks.

CALLSIGN MAV [$14] ran okay first-up in the Carlyon, but has missed a run in between which is not ideal. Only a rough chance for mine.

MAXIMAL [$18] was around $10 when first-up in the Apollo Stakes against Think It Over. He finished last of 13. The blinkers come off here but it’s hard to see him making up enough ground.

DELPHI [$20] looked disappointing when leading on a slow tempo in the Peter Young, though he did improve dramatically second-up in the Spring. Rough chance here

YONKERS [$26] ran to his ability last start, running second in the Peter Young. Not sure he has another level for this. He’ll sit handy. Rough chance.

HO HO KHAN [$41] won the Hobart Cup then finished second in the Launceston Cup. But he gets back here and will have a lot of horses in front of him with better ability. Hard to have.

SURPRISE BABY [$31] and STEEL PRINCE [$67] are outclassed here.

Verdict

Think It Over for me, and I think around $3 is a good price. I’m happy to back him. Spanish Mission is definitely second pick, but I have him more like $6.50. I’ve got the rest of the field $14+.

Punt like a pro with Trevor Lawson’s Melbourne Ratings.

As well as a full set of rated prices, speed maps and suggested bets, you can spend each and every raceday with a pro punter: the Melbourne Ratings Live Page gives you direct access to Trev himself to ask whatever you like.

If you’re keen to win, it’s the only way to punt.