Pro punter preview, top pick & betting strategy

queensland derby
queensland derby

The Queensland Derby is Group 1 set-weights race over 2400 metres, held at Eagle Farm Racecourse during Brisbane’s Winter Carnival. Total prizemoney is $1 million. While not of the same profile as the Victoria Derby or the Australian Derby, the race is the premier contest for three-year-olds during the winter carnival.

Read on for the full preview and betting strategy for the 2022 Queensland Derby from expert punter Alfie.

Queensland Derby: Alfie’s preview

Speed Pace will be fast. Global Ausbred will lead from Impel Gazelle, Red Wave and Satirical Glory. Dark Destroyer will be midfield to back with Paternal.

Track It’s certainly drier than what we’ve seen in Brisbane in recent weeks. There’s no rain forecast on Saturday, but there’s a bit to come before then. Eagle Farm handles the wet and I’m working on the track being in the 5-6 range.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

2 Dark Destroyer [$3.80] deserves to be favourite after winning the Group 3 Rough Habit last start. And can improve now, fourth-up into the 2400m. Undeniably a big chance.

12 Paternal [$6.50] ran second to Dark Destroyer in the Rough Habit, and was almost six lengths off the lead at the 800m mark… he just had too much work to do. Bowman can follow the favourite into the race, he’ll just need to get a but closer this time.

5 Pinarello [$8] can run the distance, but other than that is a big unknown at his first start on Australian soil. Use the market as a guide.

3 Caboche [$8.50] ran a good figure last start but is up in grade from a BM78. But it is Waller… anything is possible.

4 Menazzi [$15] is not out of this and building nicely into it after a third int eh Rough Habit. Big jockey change to Nash, is it enough to turn the tables on the top two? Tough draw.

14 Global Ausbred [$15] is going from a BM64 at Newcastle to a Group 1 which is clearly a tough task. But he will lead them out… can he sneak away at some stage?

10 Ting Tong [$16] is on the quick back-up from last week at Rosehill, and this is big step up in class from the BM72.

7 Southern Stock [$17] ran into fourth in the Rough Habit and will need to improve again to win this

1 Tutukaka [$20] didn’t have the clearest passage in the Rough Habit, but did finish nearly ten lengths off them. He’ll need to make it up to win this.

9 Sea Treasures [$21] is another on the quick back-up from Rosehill, and hasn’t put in great performances previously at Group 1 level.

18 Villaden [$21] is also on the quick back-up… but it is Waller. But he’ll be coming from the back.

6. Red Wave [$61] is going from a Toowoomba BM70 to a Group 1, which is probably too tough an ask.

As for the rest, this is a big field with a very long tail. All of these would need to make significant improvements to win: 13 Dark Rebel [$101], 19 Turn Me Over [$81], 11 Satirical Glory [$41], 16 Anythink Goes [$31], 8 Balmaurice [$101], 20 Velvet Lady [$91], 15 Impel Gazelle [$51], 17 Nest Egg [$41], 21 Kiplings Journey [$151

Verdict & betting strategy

It’s never ideal when the obvious choices will be back in the field, but if the pace is fast then they should get their chance.

Definitely watch the pattern on the day – if they’re making up ground out wide, then confidence will be higher.

Top pick: Dark Destroyer was great last start but I would want $5.50 plus.

Bet: If Paternal manages to settle one length closer than last time, I can see it turning the tables with Hughie on board. Worth a play.

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