Pro punter preview and value pick

tancred stakes
tancred stakes

One of Sydney’s premier staying races, the Tancred Stakes is a 2400m weight-for-age race held at Rosehill Racecourse in autumn. Total prizemoney is $1.5m. The race, known for many years as The BMW for sponsorship purposes, is the feature event on the second Saturday of the Rosehill Autumn Carnival, held the week after Golden Slipper Day.

Tancred Stakes 2022: Alfie’s preview

Track I’m working on a heavy surface, with rain predicted Friday and Saturday. It’s hard to say what the pattern will be early, but I’m looking for horses that are forward.

Speed It looks pretty slow on the map. Expect Angel of Truth, Spanish Mission and Sheraz to take it up, but there’s not much pace on paper.


Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

Duais [$2.70] is deserved favourite here coming off a peak rating rating last when winning the Australian Cup. The concern is that over her last two preps, off her peak she’s put in a rating next start that was well down.

Spanish Mission [$4.60] faces some doubts about how he will handle the surface. But his ability to go 3200m (he was third in the Melbourne Cup) may help on a bog track.

Think It Over [$4.80] has has showed promise this campaign – he won the Apollo Stakes and was second in the Australian Cup – but he’s another one that I’m worried about on the heavy surface.

She’s Ideel [$11] was ordinary in the Australian Cup, bit the run before that (the Chipping Norton) rated well on a rain affected track. So she’s not out of this.

Stockman [$13] like the wet, which is a positive here, but the others will need to be down on their past ratings for him to win.

Angel Of Truth [$20] is not totally without a chance in this. He has a rating that could win this if others are slightly off.

Great House [$31] will need to improve to match the horses at the top of the market.

Mightybeel [$34] has been disappointing at it’s last couple of starts and the jockey gave excuses about a heavy track. So I can’t have him..

The Chosen One [$21], Sheraz [$31] and Avion Fury [$101] are outclassed here.

Betting approach

The last two Tancreds have been won by horses on a 7-day back-up. I have Duais on top but I just can’t have it as short as the market… I would need $4 plus.

I would rather a small play on Angel of Truth at the current odds on offer, especially if it remains wet.

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