Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN previews Saturday’s Randwick , with horse racing tips and analysis for all 10 races on the card. Good luck, punters!
Track Condition: Heavy 10
Rail Position: True entire circuit
He might brain these. Given how SEMILLON performed in his 3 runs in Victoria, latest when a close-up 5th to Daumier in the Gr 1 Blue Diamond, he looks a great chance here. Is very fit and his win was on a wet track.
SPACEWALK has ability and now knows what to do following his strong maiden win last start. This is harder but he looks to have gears and can finish.
VOLDEMORT got back and yet finished like a train to win on debut at Scone. This is many lengths harder but that finishing power is hard to harness. Jeep safe.
This looks a good race for FLYING CRAZY. he just keeps improving and the way he attacked the line last start to gun down the pacemakers and win the 1400m Canberra Guineas was pretty impressive. Gives the impression this trip will suit.
GULF OF SAROS is back to a trip here that he loves and back on his home track. Probably scoots through and leads these. If they leave him alone, he will take a lot of catching.
CAP ESTEL is coming here from a handy effort in an open mares Gr 1 race last start. So the drop in grade will be in her favour. Sure to be handy all the way.
Tip: FLYING CRAZY
Is ROOTS the real deal? Or is she just no good in the mud? We find out here. Has the finishing power on a good day to knock this over but her worst run was her most recent when thrashed in the Gr 2 Phar Lap stakes after getting a long way back. It was a very heavy, similar to this, track that day.
HONEYCREEPER is just tough and honest, performs on wet tracks and in form. Respect her. Is ready to rumble.
This bush filly IN DE SUMMERTIME has been going gang-busters in weaker races. She can stay and she knows how to win having won her past three while a good few of these are still maidens.
STOCKMAN is becoming a very smart horse, particularly in the wet and gets his opportunity here to stake a strong claim for the Sydney Cup. Runs like he can get this trip and is now super fit.
If the old SURPRISE BABY shows up he will win this easily. Has been able to race twice this campaign so is finely fit and is a swimmer. Looks hard to beat.
CHALK STREAM is coming good at the right time. Up a little in class but is a solid stayer and is fit enough now.
Tip: SURPRISE BABY
CAVALIER CHARLES is extremely smart and better than that, he is honest and a keen racehorse. Can be on pace or sit off it as he did to win his heat into this. Comes into this with 3 wins from past 4 starts and has beaten Shelby Sixtysix at level weights. Big show.
EDIT is 2nd up into this. Was runner-up to Cavalier Charles in the heat and was making good ground that day. Fitter now. Was 4th in the Kosciusko also.
GREAT BUY will be a big odds but has a great show. He gets out and goes and off this draw should lead these. If allowed to set his own tempo he can keep running and carve out fast time. Won the Central West heat and simply ran them off their legs. Can handle a soft track too.
Tip: 1. GREAT BUY
Top field as it always is. LET’SROLLTHEDICE has raced twice and won twice, latest when claiming Victoria’s version of this race. Clearly has heaps of athletic talent. Can he plough through the mud though? Big question for all of them but he has talent.
MAGIC might be exceptional but seemed to labour in the mud last start when 3rd over 1200m. Was still coming at the end. is a class horse in the making so have in your numbers.
FIREBURN has clearly stamped herself the best juvenile in the land and should win this comfortably.
SHE’S EXTREME is very gifted and can dash late. Has won a stakes race in the mud and importantly, is trained here. That all helps a great deal.
What a terrific race. HITOTSU should win this. He is a multiple Gr 1 winner and is the winner of the VRC Gr 1 Derby last year. Terrific win first-up and seems to be able to do it all. Heavy track is the only issue.
FORGOT YOU is ready to peak. He ran 5th in the VRC Derby and since spell has run a great 4th to Hitotsu in the Gr 1 Aust Guineas then last start was 3rd to Anamoe in the Gr 1 Rosehill Guineas. Has strong claims.
CASTLEREAGH KID is on home track and looks the leader. In these wet conditions if he gets out and is left alone he may take some catching.
REGAL LION looks in supreme form with his fantastic 2nd last week in the Gr 2 Tulloch Stakes in the mud at debut Aussie run. Back in NZ he was a solid 3rd in the NZ Derby over this trip. Big chance.
Fantastic race. The weather is probably the key to NATURE STRIP because he’s not at his best when it is super heavy. On top of the ground he can win this comfortably. Has won the past two renditions of this event. Is 3rd up. Superstar on his day.
EDUARDO, his old sparring partner, lowered his colours last start. He likes it wet but the 1200m at this grade tends to find him out. The wet track may make all the difference though.
MASKED CRUSADER is the dark horse. On his day he can really rattle home late. Is 3rd up into this and coming off a good 7th in the Gr 1 Newmarket when on the wrong side of the track. Big show.
SHELBY SIXTYSIX has burst to life on these wet tracks and is now a Gr 1 winner. Is in great form and his finishing power in the mud is awesome. Has to be included.
This looks so open, probably 4 million chances. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK loves this trip and has won a big mile race here in the past. He also roared back into contention with a strong finishing 2nd to the great Zaaki in the All Star Mile last start. Looms large as he is super fit and ready to go bang from this nice draw.
INSPIRATIONAL GIRL was 6th in the All Star Mile but was making steady ground late and is better served at the weights this race. Did run over Zaaki the start prior and must be strongly considered as this is her pet trip.
FORBIDDEN LOVE is a just a freak in the wet and has proven that winning her past three races – two of them at Gr 1 level. If they let her just have her way in front, which looks likely, she will simply burn them all. Is the main danger here.
CONVERGE is trained here. Is in sparkling form winning a Gr 1 here two starts back at this trip and he loves the mud. But even better than that, he carries no weight and has drawn perfectly. Big show.
Near impossible to work out. So, so many chances, the track will be a mess, probably racing wide helps, and very few form lines to compare. Arghhhh.
I think I’ll just go one, two, three based on gut feelings here. Ok, ARCADED is smart, well was smart last year so she now 3rd up appeals, as does SNEAKY FIVE who is a stakes winner and loves it wet. Is 2nd up in to this while SMIRNOVA was on pace in a similar stakes race last start in the mud and ran 3rd.
Best I could do folks.