Horse Racing Tips – Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes

Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1  Randwick TJ Smith Stakes with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps and assesses the race. Good luck, punters!

1. NATURE STRIP  (11) 21x1211x23

T: Chris Waller / J: James McDonald (58.5kg)

Superstar who has won this race twice. Is he the same horse as last year? Time will tell but from this gate, and being 3rd up, he should roll across and sit outside of Eduardo. He has proven form this trip and if the track is less than heavy he can win again. Is too good to leave out.

2. EDUARDO (3) 131x131x31

T: Joe Pride / J: Nash Rawiller (58.5kg)

Super speedster who just keeps beating up on Nature Strip in events under 1200m but can’t seem to master him over this trip. Beat him and Shelby Sixtysix last start at level weights over 1100m. Must be considered.

3. MASKED CRUSADER  (1) 5x15126x57

T: Team Hawkes / J: Willy Pike (58.5kg)

Here’s the dark horse. He split Nature Strip and Eduardo in the Everest here this trip, and his two runs this time up, although unplaced Gr 1 efforts, were sound. His run in the Newmarket last start from the bad gate and bad side of the track when 7th was far better than it looked. Respect him.

4. ZOUTORI (7) 40x4240x08

T: Mat Ellerton/ J:  Damian Lane (58.5kg)

Not racing well enough to be considered any type of threat here.

5. COUNT DE RUPEE (4) 183x1321x0

T: Team Price / J: Brock Ryan (58.5kg)

Hard to see him at WFA winning this based on his first-up immense failure in the Gr 1 Newmarket. Didn’t fire a shot. Has a good 2nd up record and goes well this trip but may still need something a little easier.

6. SHELBY SIXTYSIX (10) 2602521211

T: Danny Williams / J: Tommy Berry (58.5kg)

Interesting galloper. Has captured everyone’s imagination with the way he has stormed into Gr 1 company via these very wet tracks. Is super fit, has beaten Nature Strip at level weights and is in this incredible, unbeatable vein of form. If heavy, he can win again.

7. RULE OF LAW (5) 97×1111129

T: Bjorn Baker / J: Brenton Avdulla (58.5kg)

Won five restricted races in a row then met Shelby Sixtysix and couldn’t hold him off. Stepped up to Gr 1 level and Shelby smashed him again. Threepeat looks inevitable.

8. ROCH ‘N’ HORSE (8) 2201×42721

T: Michael Moroney / J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg)

Is one of the horses to beat. Won a Gr 1 in Melbourne last start at first look at Aussie racing. Kiwi star who was Gr 1 placed three before coming here. Yes, was on the better part of the track at Flemington in that Gr 1 Newmarket win…but still had to do it. Will go well.

9. OVERPASS  (2) 0x846x1215

T: Bjorn Baker / J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg)

Is absolutely lethal out of the gates and he might just cause a few to get off the bit and out of their comfort zones early. Can’t see him winning but as an agent provocateur he looms large.

10. BELLUCI BABE (9) 138×244214

T: Bjorn Baker/ J:  Josh Parr (56.5kg)

This is such a strong and consistent mare. But this is an even stronger Gr 1 then her fine 4th to Shelby sixty Six in the Galaxy. Does love it wet and goes better this journey. Could sneak a place.

11. PAULELE (6) 1x12210x10

T: James Cummings / J: Jamie Kah (56.5kg)

Was well up to this level before last start’s poor run in the Galaxy. Was wide and well back and stayed there. Did not handle the track at all. On top of the ground he’s a different horse.