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Ipswich Cup preview
Ipswich Cup preview

Held as a standalone Saturday meeting during the Brisbane Winter Carnival, the Ipswich Cup has grown in stature as a race and a meeting. The race is now run at Listed level for $175,000 in prizemoney. Other feature events on the Ipswich Cup Day card include the Listed Eye Liner Stakes and the Listed Gai Waterhouse Classic.

Ipswich Cup 2022: Alfie’s preview

Track At this stage we have a Soft 5. At this meeting last year all horses got their chance, with them coming off the rail  over the last 400m. You probably didn’t want to be too far back, like most meetings.

Speed The pace here looks above average. Tavion Prince and Spencer should lead with Street Dancer and Youngblood behind them. Batholomeu Dias and Our Intrigue sit midfield.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

5 Our Intrigue [$4.40] has raced forward this prep, so the map is a question mark. She’s racing consistently this prep and has a grand final trainer in Waller… so she’s a big chance, but I don’t like the current odds.

3 Bartholomeu Dias [$4.80] is at his third start with Neasham (ex Maher/Eustace). He produced a good win at odds last start (SP $17)… he’s a big chance but again, I’m not sure I would want to be taking this price.

1 Berdibek [$5] is nominated in NSW as well. He has past figures to win, but will need to improve on what he’s done over his last three starts.

8 Street Dancer [$8.50] is coming off a BM80 win at Doomben, but will need to improve to win. Definitely a chance and will settle forward.

2 Ballistic Boy [$9] was disappointing last start in the Q22. He’s some chance but another that I just can’t get as short as the market.

4 Swords Drawn [$10] is a Kiwi at his second start in Australia. He’s had 42 days between runs and looking at his pattern, that’s longer than usual. Gets a tricky map and will be coming from the back.

10 Youngblood [$12] has the same leadup as stable mate Tavion Prince, and both have obviously been set for this. Another one that will be forward so I give him a chance.

7 Smart Meteor [$17] is another one that will need to improve to be good enough to win this.

9 Tavion Prince [$19] was very disappointing last start at Eagle Farm, but was off a 28 day break and back in distance. He’s now 14 days off between runs and will get a good map, so isn’t out of this.

12 Spencer [$41] does get a good run, but can’t see him troubling them.

A win from any of the rest would seriously surprise: 13 Ostermeier [$34], 15 Chakana [$41], 17 Lady Solerno [$101], 14 Top Order [$101], 11 Honorable Spirit [$101], 16 Dunhill [$61].

Betting strategy

Value Bets
Youngblood
Tavion Prince
Swords Drawn

The top two in the market are too short for mine… they’re the main chances but are no certainties for mine. So I’m going wider in the market and will be splitting my stakes across three that are well priced and could get us a result. The Gollan pair, Youngblood and Tavion Prince, look to have been set for this and I think they can improve off last start. I’d also expect improvement from the former Kiwi Swords Drawn, who looks to get a better setup for this race. So I’ll have him on my side too. Good luck!

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