Find the back of the net with tips for all 10 matches of EPL Week 35 with the title race and relegation battle still very much alive.
04:45 (AEST), Fri 29th Apr @ Old Trafford, Manchester
History: Played 190: Man United 81 V Chelsea 55 (54 Draws)
Last meeting: November 28, 2021 (EPL): 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge
Final Thoughts: Chelsea’s FA Cup Final commitments have seen this Week 37 fixture brought forward a couple of weeks.
The Blues – currently third with a five-point buffer and a game in hand – will be viewing it as an opportunity to all but seal a top-four finish. Thomas Tuchel’s charges have been a tad patchy over the past month, losing to Brentford (4-1) and Arsenal (4-2) heavily at home but swamping Southampton (6-0) away, and squeaking past West Ham 1-0 last weekend via a 90th-minute goal to Christian Pulisic. They were also bundled out of the Champions League.
Things are far more bleak for Manchester United, however. They are sixth and six points shy of fourth-placed Arsenal – and in terrible form. The Red Devils have lost four of their last seven, including back-to-back drubbings at Liverpool (4-0) and Arsenal (3-1) in the past nine days. Cristiano Ronaldo has scored seven of United’s eight goals in their past six games.
The teams’ last three games have finished in a draw, including a 1-all result at Stamford Bridge earlier this season. Chelsea haven’t won a Premier League game against United since 2017.
United are unbeaten in their last seven at home – though that run includes draws with Southampton, Watford and Leicester. Back Chelsea with confidence here.
Best Bet: Result – Chelsea @ $2.20
Same Game Multi: Result – Chelsea; Anytime Goalscorer – Mason Mount; Anytime Goalscorer – Cristiano Ronaldo @ $16.92
21:30 (AEST), Sat 30th Apr @ St James’ Park, Newcastle
History: Played 182: Liverpool 88 V Newcastle 50 (44 Draws)
Last meeting: December 16, 2021 (EPL): Liverpool 3 d Newcastle 1 at Anfield
Final Thoughts: Liverpool essentially need to secure all remaining 15 points available to stay in the title race and hope Man City slip up. Jurgen Klopp’s side is one point off the lead (with a superior goal differential) and $2.80 for the trophy.
Liverpool are also in sizzling form. Draws with Chelsea and Man City are the only ‘blips’ in their last 14 games, keeping 10 clean sheets in that time and beating Man United (4-0) and Everton (2-0) in the past fortnight. They also took the ascendancy in their Champions League semi-final against Villareal this week with a 2-0 first leg win.
Newcastle’s amazing resurgence has hoisted them into ninth after occupying a bottom-three spot for much of the campaign. The Magpies have won 10 of their last 14 games, including their last four straight. Joelinton notched a first-half brace in a 3-0 victory at Norwich last weekend.
After holding Liverpool to a pair of draws last season, Newcastle went down 3-1 at Anfield in Week 17 – despite opening the scoring in the seventh minute. The Magpies’ last win over the Reds was back in 2015.
Newcastle’s form in recent times deserves respect and Liverpool are on a short turnaround. But with the EPL title still very much within their reach, the Reds will be keyed up and still look good value to win by a couple of goals on the back of their near-impregnable defence and Salah-led attack.
Best Bet: Handicap – Liverpool -1 @ $2.10
Same Game Multi: Result – Liverpool; Half-time Result – Liverpool; Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Mo Salah @ $4.25
00:00 (AEST), Sun 1st May @ Vicarage Road, Watford
History: Played 45: Burnley 21 V Watford 13 (11 Draws)
Last meeting: February 5, 2022 (EPL): 0-0 draw at Turf Moor
Final Thoughts: Watford are paying $1.005 to be relegated, second-last with five matches to play and 10 points from safety.
But Burnley have climbed out of the bottom-three with an incredible surge since the contentious axing of manager Sean Dyche in mid-April. The Clarets have grabbed a draw at West Ham (1-1) and wins over Southampton (2-0) and Wolverhampton (1-0) since the change to overtake Everton.
Watford have lost their last four by a combined 12-2, including a 5-1 loss at Man City last weekend.
Watford have won just two of their last 13 against Burnley and have been held scoreless in the teams’ last four clashes. The cellar-dwelling rivals played out a nil-all draw at Burnley earlier this season.
Given their recent performances, it’s hard seeing Burnley – slight outsiders here – relinquishing their advantage in a fierce relegation fight.
Best Bet: Result – Burnley @ $2.75
Same Game Multi: Burnley To Win To Nil; Total – Under 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Wout Weghorst @ $9.73
00:00 (AEST), Sun 1st May @ St Mary’s Stadium, Southampton
History: Played 113: Southampton 48 V Crystal Palace 40 (25 Draws)
Last meeting: December 15, 2021 (EPL): 2-2 draw at Selhurst Park, London
Final Thoughts: One of the less consequential fixtures of Week 35 as 13th-placed Southampton host 14th-placed Crystal Palace.
After losing just one of 10 games in a December-February charge, Southampton have picked up just five points from their last eight games. They managed a 2-all draw at Brighton last week after James Ward-Prowse scored two goals to drag the Saints back from a two-goal deficit. Palace stirring five-match unbeaten run has given way to consecutive losses at Leicester and Newcastle and a scoreless draw at home to Leeds.
Southampton have had the recent edge in this rivalry, winning seven and drawing three of their last 13 against Crystal Palace. The teams drew 2-all in London in Week 17.
The Saints boast better recent form and six wins and seven draws from 17 home games.
Best Bet: Result – Southampton @ $2.38
Same Game Multi: Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Wilfried Zaha; Anytime Goalscorer – James Ward-Prowse @ $10.27
02:30 (AEST), Sun 1st May @ Villa Park, Birmingham
History: Played 73: Aston Villa 35 V Norwich 22 (16 Draws)
Last meeting: December 14, 2021 (EPL): Aston Villa 2 d Norwich 0 at Carrow Road
Final Thoughts: Norwich would need to win at least four of their remaining five matches and hope other results went their way to avoid relegation. It’s all over for the last-placed Canaries, who are coming off a 3-0 loss at home to Newcastle after a brave 3-2 loss at Old Trafford.
Aston Villa are 15th, eight points clear of the bottom-three and a $151 longshot to be relegated – but stranger things have happened. They’ll be eager to pick up some points to guarantee their safety, particularly after losing four straight and playing out a scoreless draw with Leicester in their past five.
Aston Villa carved out a 2-0 win at Norwich in Week 17 via goals to Jacob Ramsey and Ollie Watkins.
Villa have struggled to score of late – held to nil in three of their last four – while Norwich boast just 22 goals in 33 games. Give me the under in this one.
Best Bet: Total – Under 2.5 @ $2.10
00:00 (AEST), Sun 1st May @ Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton
History: Played 37: Brighton 15 V Wolverhampton 8 (14 Draws)
Last meeting: December 15, 2021 (EPL): Wolverhampton 1 d Brighton 0 at Molineux Stadium
Final Thoughts: Wolverhampton are out of the top-four running, now 11 points shy of Arsenal in eighth after disappointing back-to-back 1-0 losses at Newcastle and Burnley.
Early-season bolters Brighton are 11th and hoping for a top-half finish after recent upsets of Arsenal and Tottenham. Since then, the Seagulls have gone down at Man City (3-0) and drawn at home to Southampton (2-2).
Wovles are unbeaten in their last six against Brighton, including a 1-0 road win in Week 17 after Romain Saiss scored late in the first half.
A tough one to pick result-wise, but Wolves have scored eight goals in their last three home games and Brighton’s recent attacking form has been handy.
Best Bet: Both Teams To Score @ $1.99
Same Game Multi: Result – Draw; Anytime Goalscorer – Danny Welbeck @ $10.04
02:30 (AEST), Sun 1st May @ Elland Road, Leeds
History: Played 107: Man City 46 V Leeds 43 (18 Draws)
Last meeting: December 14, 2021 (EPL): Man City 7 d Leeds 0 at Etihad Stadium
Final Thoughts: Manchester City have had the Premier League lead since early-December and have lost just one of their last 23 games. They are $1.40 favourites to carry off the trophy for the second season in a row – but their advantage over Liverpool is just one point. Any stumble will likely prove fatal.
City have been in hot touch since their 2-all draw with Liverpool, however, thrashing Brighton 3-0 and Watford 5-1 in the last 10 days with Gabriel Jesus scoring four goals in the latter. They also snared a 4-3 win over Real Madrid midweek in the first leg of their UCL semi-final tie.
Leeds United remain in the relegation mix ($4.50), only five points clear of 18th-placed Everton and one less game in hand. But the Whites have rallied over the past six weeks, going unbeaten with three wins and two draws. Jack Harrison scored in three consecutive games before they played out a scoreless draw at Crystal Palace last weekend.
After picking up a home draw and a shock away win against the eventual champs last season, Leeds were butchered 7-0 by City at Etihad Stadium in Week 17. Kevin De Bruyne finished with two goals.
Leeds have found a bit of resilience since then, but it won’t be enough to avoid another relatively convincing defeat.
Best Bet: Handicap – Man City -1 @ $1.80
Same Game Multi: Result – Man City; Total – Over 3.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Kevin De Bruyne; Anytime Goalscorer – Phil Foden @ $9.80
23:00 (AEST), Mon 2nd May @ Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
History: Played 117: Tottenham 59 V Leicester 37 (21 Draws)
Last meeting: January 19, 2022 (EPL): Tottenham 3 d Leicester 2 at King Power Stadium
Final Thoughts: Tottenham have blown some recent opportunities to cement a top-four spot. Will they take this one to stay in hunt after falling two points behind Arsenal?
After winning four straight, Spurs lost 1-0 at home to Brighton and drew nil-all at Brentford in the past two weeks.
Tenth-placed Leicester are coming off consecutive draws with lower-ranked Everton (1-1) and Aston Villa (0-0) but have lost only two of their last nine.
Leicester were on track for a home win over Spurs in February, until Steven Bergwijn scored two goals in the dying stages to snatch a 3-2 victory for Tottenham. All of the teams’ last 10 games produced at least two goals, with eight seeing three-plus goals.
With so much riding on it for Tottenham and so much attacking class at their disposal, they should get the result at home. But Leicester will make it uncomfortable for them.
Best Bet: Correct Score – Tottenham 2-1 @ $8.00
Same Game Multi: Result – Tottenham; Handicap – Leicester +2; Anytime Goalscorer – Jamie Vardy; Anytime Goalscorer – Son Heung-min @ $16.70
23:00 (AEST), Mon 2nd May @ Goodison Park, Liverpool
History: Played 187: Chelsea 74 V Everton 58 (55 Draws)
Last meeting: December 16, 2021 (EPL): 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge
Final Thoughts: Everton are staring down the barrel of being relegated for the first time in the Premier League era. They are now just $1.91 for the drop after slipping into the bottom-three for the first time this season, two points behind Burnley.
The Toffees have a game in hand, but their desperate grab for competition points begins with a tough home assignment against Chelsea, who will be backing up less than three days after a clash with Man United.
Ironically, Everton’s recent form has been OK. They upset Man United 1-0, drew with Leicester City 1-1 and last weekend were not disgraced in a 2-0 loss away to red-hot Liverpool.
Everton held Chelsea to a 1-all draw in one of their better results this season. Encouragingly, the Toffees are on a three-match winning streak against Chelsea at home.
Another draw would be a great result for Everton, but Chelsea should have too much for the embattled hosts.
Best Bet: Result – Chelsea @ $1.80
01:30 (AEST), Mon 2nd May @ London Stadium, London
History: Played 145: Arsenal 70 V West Ham 35 (40 Draws)
Last meeting: December 15, 2021 (EPL): Arsenal 2 d West Ham 0 at Emirates Stadium
Final Thoughts: Seventh-placed West Ham are eight points behind fourth-placed Arsenal with four matches remaining. A win here could make things somewhat interesting for Irons fans.
But Hammers’ recent form has been ordinary, losing four of their last seven. They’ve bookended a draw at home to Burnley with losses at Brentford (2-0) and Chelsea (1-0) in their past three.
Arsenal’s destiny is in their own hands for now after sailing past Tottenham with consecutive impressive wins over Chelsea (4-2) and Man United (3-1) – after a near-disastrous three-match losing streak. Bukayo Saka scored in both high-profile clashes.
West Ham boast just two wins from their last 29 games against Arsenal. The Gunners prevailed 2-0 at home in Week 17 via second-half goals to Gabriel Martinelli and Emile Smith Rowe.
Arsenal look a bit short as $1.80 favourites on the road, but I’ll back them in here.
05:00 (AEST), Tue 3rd May @ Old Trafford, Manchester
History: Played 14: Man Untied 7 V Brentford 5 (2 Draws)
Last meeting: January 19, 2022 (EPL): Man United 3 d Brentford 1 at Brentford Community Stadium
Final Thoughts: Man United get a few days to recover from their catch-up game at Chelsea. If they can roll the Blues, the Red Devils’ flagging top-four hopes may be revitalised – and this clash suddenly carries a lot more weight.
Brentford have done a tremendous job to ensure their maiden Premier League campaign extends into at least one more, winning 11 games and drawing seven to occupy 12th spot. They have been on fire lately, counting Chelsea among their scalps in a run of five wins in six matches, before holding Tottenham to a scoreless draw last weekend.
Visiting Man United overwhelmed Brentford 3-1 earlier this season after a scoreless first half. Anthony Elanga, Mason Greenwood and Marcus Rashford scored for United in a 22-minute period.
You’d normally expect a bottom-half team to be longer than $4.50 for an Old Trafford upset, but it’s a reflection of the Bees’ outstanding recent form. I think they can head home with at least a share of the spoils here.