EPL Tips & Preview – Week 30

Find the back of the net with tips for three catch-up matches plus a truncated schedule of matches from Week 30 of the EPL schedule. 

06:30 (AEDT), Thu 17th Mar @ Amex Stadium, Brighton

History: Played 33: Tottenham 17 V Brighton 8 (8 Draws)

Last meeting: February 5, 2022 (FA Cup): Tottenham 3 d Brighton 1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Final Thoughts: Tottenham will be viewing this Week 16 catch-up as a must-win for the top-four hopes – and a much-needed bounce-back opportunity from a 3-2 loss to Man United last week, their fifth loss in eight matches.

The bottom has fallen out of Brighton’s campaign, meanwhile, losing their last five games straight after losing just four of their first 23. The Seagulls have been held to nil four times in their current slide, including a 2-0 home defeat to Liverpool on the weekend.

Brighton have won their last two against Tottenham at Amex Stadium to nil. Spurs bounced the Seagulls out of the FA Cup last month 3-1 at home.

Tottenham’s consistency remains an issue, but they did demolish Leeds (4-0) and Everton (5-0) prior to their trip to Old Trafford. Brighton are in all sorts and look far too short, despite being at home.

Best Bet: Result – Tottenham @ $2.20

Same Game Multi: Handicap – Tottenham -1; Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Harry Kane @ $10.89

07:15 (AEDT), Thu 17th Mar @ Emirates Stadium, London

History: Played 236: Liverpool 93 V Arsenal 81 (62 Draws)

Last meeting: January 20, 2022 (EFL Cup): Liverpool 2 d Arsenal 0 at Emirates Stadium

Final Thoughts: This Week 27 catch-up doubles as a top-four blockbuster, with Arsenal and Liverpool both heading to Emirates Stadium on lengthy winning streaks.

Fourth-placed Arsenal’s 2-0 victory over Leicester City on the weekend was their fifth straight. Thomas Partney opened the scoring before Alexandre Lacazette’s second-half penalty sealed the deal.

Second-placed Liverpool have won three in a row – six of them to nil. Luis Diaz and Mo Salah got their names on the scoresheet in a 2-0 win at Brighton in Week 29. Liverpool have an FA Cup quarter-final at Nottingham Forest this weekend to prepare for but count on Jurgen Klopp naming his strongest possible line-up.

Liverpool have won their last three EPL matches against Arsenal by a combined 10-1. The Gunners were subjected to a 4-0 thrashing at Anfield in November, while Liverpool eliminated them from the League Cup in January with a 2-0 win in London.

If there’s one thing Arsenal’s much-improved campaign has lacked, it’s a win (or even a draw) against a heavyweight rival. But they head into this game in great shape and look a good chance of earning a share of the spoils.

Best Bet: Result – Draw @ $3.80

Same Game Multi: Handicap – Arsenal +1; Total – Under 3.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Mo Salah @ $8.15

06:45 (AEDT), Fri 18th Mar @ Goodison Park, Liverpool

History: Played 179: Everton 74 V Newcastle 69 (36 Draws)

Last meeting: February 8, 2022 (EPL): Newcastle 3 d Everton 1 at St James’ Park

Final Thoughts: Everton are sinking ever closer to the relegation zone and face a crunch Week 20 catch-up match against a Newcastle side that has all but extricated themselves from the conversation.

Everton’s 1-0 home loss to Wolverhampton on the weekend was their eighth in nine matches and they are only out of the bottom-three on goal differential. The beleaguered Toffees have also failed to score in their last four outings. They have won their way through to the FA Cup quarters, where they face Palace this weekend.

Resurgent Newcastle’s bubble burst in Week 29, though they were far from disgraced in a 1-0 loss at Chelsea after winning six and drawing three of their previous nine. The Magpies are 14th and nine points clear of danger after spending much of the season near the foot of the ladder.

Newcastle have won four and drawn one of their last five against Everton, carving out a 3-1 win at home last month.

There’s very little case to be made for an Everton win other than they’re at home. Newcastle are outstanding value.

Best Bet: Result – Newcastle @ $3.00

Same Game Multi: Result – Newcastle; Total – Under 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Chris Wood @ $11.87

07:00 (AEDT), Sat 19th Mar @ Molineux Stadium, Wovlerhampton

History: Played 100: Leeds 42 V Wolverhampton 35 (23 Draws)

Last meeting: October 23, 2021 (EPL): 1-1 draw at Elland Road

Final Thoughts: Wolverhampton have revived their faint top-four hopes with consecutive wins over battlers Watford 4-0 and Everton (1-0). Currently seventh, Wolves at the very least will be eyeing off a Europa League spot.

Leeds snapped a six-match losing streak (and a five-match scoreless run) with a desperately needed 2-1 win at home to Norwich – but they Joe Gelhardt’s 94th-minute goal to put the last-placed visitors away. Nevertheless, Leeds have inched four points clear of the relegation zone.

Wolves are unbeaten in their last six against Leeds, though Leeds managed to snap a five-match losing streak in the rivalry with a 1-all draw at home earlier this season.

Wolverhampton are very generously priced as $2.20 home favourites – the teams are a long way apart performance-wise this season and the hosts carry decent momentum into this one.

Best Bet: Wolverhampton To Win To Nil @ $3.60

Same Game Multi: Result – Wolverhampton; Total – Under 3.5; First Goalscorer – Raul Jimenez @ $12.05

23:30 (AEDT), Sat 19th Mar @ Villa Park, Birmingham

History: Played 198: Arsenal 84 V Aston Villa 69 (45 Draws)

Last meeting: October 22, 2021 (EPL): Arsenal 3 d Aston Villa 1 at Emirates Stadium

Final Thoughts: Arsenal will back up less than three days from their blockbuster against Liverpool with a road trip to Villa Park.

Aston Villa are ninth on the ladder, but their superb three-match winning streak – shutting out Brighton (2-0), Southampton (4-0) and Leeds (2-0) – was halted by a hard-fought 2-1 defeat to sixth-placed West Ham in Week 29.

Arsenal broke a frustrating three-matches losing streak against Villa with a 3-1 home victory in October.

The short turnaround is a tough hurdle, but in-form Arsenal are good head-to-head value with every point from here on out absolutely vital to their top-four quest.

Best Bet: Result – Arsenal @ $2.30

Same Game Multi: Result – Arsenal; Total – Over 2.5; Both Teams To Score; Anytime Goalscorer – Alexandre Lacazette @ $8.31

01:00 (AEDT), Mon 20th Mar @ King Power Stadium, Leicester

History: Played 20: Leicester 14 V Brentford 6 (10 Draws)

Last meeting: October 24, 2021 (EPL): Leicester 2 d Brentford 1 at Brentford Community Stadium

Final Thoughts: There’s little at stake here with 12th-placed Leicester’s dismal campaign meandering along to a home clash with 15th-placed Brentford, who are relatively safe from relegation danger.

After beating Burnley and Leeds to nil, Leicester went down 2-0 at Arsenal on the weekend.

Brentford are coming off their first consecutive wins of the season – against Norwich (3-1) and Burnley (2-0) – following an eight-match stretch that garnered just one point. Remarkably, Ivan Toney scored all five goals for the Bees in the two victories.

Leicester grabbed a 2-1 win at Brentford earlier this season, James Maddison scoring the 78th-minute winner after Youri Tielmans opened the scoring for the Foxes and Mathias Jorgensen equalised for the Bees.

A tough game to get a read on with Brentford finding some form and Leicester potentially struggling for motivation. I’ll be taking the safe way out here.

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score @ $1.70

Same Game Multi: Result – Draw; Total – Over 1.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Ivan Toney @ $6.38

03:30 (AEDT), Mon 20th Mar @ Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

History: Played 218: Tottenham 99 V West Ham 66 (53 Draws)

Last meeting: December 22, 2021 (EFL Cup): Tottenham 2 d West Ham 1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Final Thoughts: A crucial battle as both clubs aim to stay in the top-four hunt. West Ham are sixth, three points shy of fourth-placed Arsenal (who have played three less games). Tottenham are hoping to draw level with the Irons with a win over Brighton midweek before attempting to overtake them on the table.

West Ham bookended their Week 28 loss at Liverpool (1-0) with home wins over Wolverhampton (1-0) and Aston Villa (2-1). But they will be on a three-day turnaround from a do-or-die Europa League Round of 16 showdown with Sevilla.

West Ham won the teams’ EPL clash at London Stadium in October 1-0 via Michail Antonio’s 72nd-minute strike. Tottenham struck back with a 2-1 League Cup win at home two months later.

Spurs are a bit under the odds as $1.75 favourites, but I am leaning their way in a busy week for both clubs.

Best Bet: Double Chance and Total – Tottenham or Draw and Under @ $2.40

Same Game Multi: Total – Over 2.5; Both Teams To Score; Tottenham To Win Either Half; Anytime Goalscorer – Harry Kane @ $5.74