EPL Tips & Preview – Week 29

Palmerbet Blog

Find the back of the net with tips for four catch-up matches on Friday morning (AEDT) and the full 10-game schedule for Week 29 of the EPL season, including Manchester United v Tottenham. 

06:30 (AEDT), Fri 11th Mar @ Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton

History: Played 50: Watford 16 V Wolverhampton 16 (18 Draws)

Last meeting: September 11, 2021 (EPL): Wolverhampton 2 d Watford 0 at Vicarage Road

Final Thoughts: This Week 19 catch-up fixture gives Wolverhampton the opportunity to snap a three-match losing streak and stay in the top-four mix. Meanwhile, Watford will aim to use the road trip to boost their relegation battle cause.

Eighth-placed Wolves have slumped to losses to Arsenal (2-1), West Ham (1-0) and Crystal Palace (2-0) in the past fortnight.

Watford, second-last with just one win from their last 15 games, followed up their scoreless draw away to Man United with a spirited 3-2 loss to Arsenal. It was the first time the Hornets have scored more than twice in a match since November.

Wolverhampton carved out a 2-0 win at Watford in Week 4, surging late courtesy of a Hornets own goal and a sealer from Hwang Hee-chan. Wolves’ attacking drop-off is a concern but they should be able to overcome the lowly visitors again.

Best Bet: Result – Wolverhampton @ $1.80

Same Game Multi: Wolverhampton To Win To Nil; Anytime Goalscorer – Raul Jiminez @ $4.97

06:30 (AEDT), Fri 11th Mar @ St Mary’s Stadium, Southampton

History: Played 103: Newcastle 41 V Southampton 38 (24 Draws)

Last meeting: August 28, 2021 (EPL): 2-2 draw at St James’ Park

Final Thoughts: Southampton host Newcastle in a Week 20 catch-up.

Ninth-placed Southampton’s form surge hit an unexpected brick wall at Villa Park last weekend, pummelled 4-0 in just their second loss in 11 games.

Newcastle – for so long in the bottom-three – can’t put a foot wrong, tearing to 14th with an eight-match unbeaten streak, including five wins from their past six games. Early goals to Ryan Fraser and Fabian Schar secured a 2-1 home win over Brighton on the weekend.

Southampton have won just one of their last nine against Newcastle. The teams drew 2-all at St James’ Park in Week 3 in a crazy finish, with Allan Saint-Maximin’s 90th-minute apparent winner for the Magpies cancelled out by James Ward-Prowse’s penalty for the Saints seconds later.

Southampton received a jarring wake-up call last time out and are $2.00 home favourites here, but it’s hard to back against Newcastle giving their remarkable turnaround under Eddie Howe.

Best Bet: Handicap – Newcastle +1 @ $1.83

Same Game Multi: Result – Draw; Total – Over 1.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Chris Wood @ $8.49

06:30 (AEDT), Fri 11th Mar @ Carrow Road, Norwich

History: Played 57: Chelsea 25 V Norwich 14 (18 Draws)

Last meeting: October 23, 2021 (EPL): Chelsea 7 d Norwich 0 at Stamford Bridge

Final Thoughts: Norwich and Chelsea get their Week 30 clash out of the way early due to their FA Cup commitments.

The Canaries are last and on a four-match losing streak, going down 3-1 at home to Brentford last weekend.

Chelsea are nestled comfortably in the top four (albeit 16 points off the EPL leaders) and have rediscovered their defensive steel in winning their last three against Tottenham, Palace and Burnley to nil. The Blues took a while to get going at Turf Moor but after a scoreless first half they powered to a 4-0 result, Kai Havertz scoring a four-minute brace.

Norwich last beat Chelsea in 1994 and were demolished 7-0 at Stamford Bridge in Week 9, with Mason Mount bagging a hat-trick. Chelsea should win by plenty again.

Best Bet: Handicap – Chelsea -2 @ $3.00

Same Game Multi: Result – Chelsea; Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Kai Havertz; Anytime Goalscorer – Romelu Lukaku @ $6.80

06:45 (AEDT), Fri 11th Mar @ Elland Road, Leeds

History: Played 103: Aston Villa 40 V Leeds 32 (31 Draws)

Last meeting: February 9, 2022 (EPL): 3-3 draw at Villa Park

Final Thoughts: The last of the catch-up matches sees Leeds United host Aston Villa in a postponed Week 20 fixture.

Leeds are under huge pressure, sitting just two points above relegation territory after losing their last five games by a combined 18-2. At least last weekend’s 1-0 loss at Leicester stemmed the tidal wave of goals against them – but it’s hard to see where their sixth win of the season comes from.

Aston Villa have moved to 11th courtesy of impressive back-to-back wins over Brighton (2-0) and in-form Southampton (4-0), who occupy the next two spots above them on the ladder. Ollie Watkins scored in both victories.

The teams met just four weeks ago, playing out an entertaining 3-all draw at Villa Park. Villa’s Jacob Ramsey and Leeds’ Daniel James both scored two goals.

The visitors are gift-wrapped value here against the league’s worst defence.

Best Bet: Result – Aston Villa @ $2.50

Same Game Multi: Result – Aston Villa; Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Danny Ings @ $7.95

23:30 (AEDT), Sat 12th Mar @ Amex Stadium, Brighton

History: Played 34: Liverpool 19 V Brighton 5 (10 Draws)

Last meeting: October 30, 2021 (EPL): 2-2 draw at Anfield

Final Thoughts: Week 29 gets underway with second-placed Liverpool hunting an eighth straight EPL win at home. Jurgen Klopp’s outfit, who have a game in hand, have shaved Man City’s lead to just four points.

Liverpool following up their 6-0 demolition of Leeds with a hard-fought 1-0 win over West Ham, courtesy of Sadio Mane’s first-half goal. The went down 1-0 to Internazionale in midweek UCL action but advanced to the quarters on aggregate.

Brighton, meanwhile, have slumped to 13th on the ladder via four straight losses. They were held to nil by Man United, Burnley and Aston Villa, before going down 2-1 at Newcastle last weekend.

Brighton have proved a pesky opponent for Liverpool in recent times, picking up a win and two draws in their last three clashes. The Seagulls came from two goals down to snare a 2-all result at Anfield in Week 10.

Given the disparity in the clubs’ recent form, Liverpool look great value at $1.50 for the win.

Best Bet: Handicap – Liverpool -1 @ $2.30

Same Game Multi: Result – Liverpool; Total – Over 2.5; Brighton Half-time Total – Under 0.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Mo Salah @ $4.66

02:00 (AEDT), Sun 13th Mar @ Brentford Community Stadium, Brentford

History: Played 31: Burnley 13 V Brentford 8 (10 Draws)

Last meeting: October 30, 2021 (EPL): Burnley 3 d Brentford 1 at Turf Moor

Final Thoughts: Brentford took a step away from relegation danger with a drought-breaking win last week. Burnley are hoping to climb out of the bottom-three.

Burnley powered to a 3-1 victory over Brentford at home in Round 10 – their only win in their first 21 matches.

After picking up just one point from their past eight games, the Bees carved out a 3-1 win at Norwich in Week 28. Ivan Toney bagged a hat-trick, courtesy of a first-half goal and two penalties after the break. Ex-Tottenham veteran Christian Eriksen’s transfer window addition is starting to pay dividends.

The Clarets’ spike in form – losing just one game (Liverpool) in a seven-game stretch – has tapered off with back-to-back defeats to Leicester (2-0) and Chelsea (4-0).

It’s crunch time for Burnley and they will be desperate to not leave Brentford empty-handed.

Best Bet: Result – Draw @ $3.20

Same Game Multi: Handicap – Burnley +1; Total – Under 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Ashley Barnes @ $7.70

04:30 (AEDT), Sun 13th Mar @ Old Trafford, Manchester

History: Played 196: Man United 94 V Tottenham 53 (49 Draws)

Last meeting: October 31, 2021 (EPL): Man United 3 d Tottenham 0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Final Thoughts: The marquee match of the round sees heavyweights Man United and Tottenham on the outside of the top four looking in.

United are fifth, one point behind Arsenal (who have played three less games). Form-wise they are struggling, following up a scoreless draw at home to Watford with a 4-1 hammering at the hands of Man City across town at the Etihad. The decision of Cristiano Ronaldo, unavailable with a hip injury, to jet off to Portugal rather than attend the derby did little for morale. He is racing the clock to be fit to play this week.

Seventh-placed Tottenham – who have a couple of games in hand – can leapfrog Man United with a win here. They have recovered from a run of four losses in five games with a pair of blowout victories over Leeds (4-0) and Everton (5-0), with big guns Harry Kane and Son Heung-min scoring in both wins.

United have won four and drawn one of their last six against Spurs. Tottenham romped to a 6-1 win at Old Trafford last season, but Man United grabbed a 3-0 away win in Week 10 this season.

On current form, Spurs are hard to resist as $3.40 underdogs.

Best Bet: Handicap – Tottenham +1 @ $1.73

Same Game Multi: Total – Over 2.5; Both Teams To Score; Tottenham To Win Either Half; Anytime Goalscorer – Harry Kane @ $5.74

01:00 (AEDT), Mon 14th Mar @ Stamford Bridge, London

History: Played 170: Chelsea 77 V Newcastle 54 (39 Draws)

Last meeting: October 30, 2021 (EPL): Chelsea 3 d Newcastle 0 at St James’ Park

Final Thoughts: Chelsea and Newcastle are both backing up less than three days after their catch-up assignments. It’s two straight road trips for the Magpies, following up a journey to Southampton with this London visit.

Chelsea have won nine of their last 11 against Newcastle. Both teams scoring has not hit in their last five encounters, with Chelsea winning 3-0 at St James’ Park in Week 10 on the back of a Reece James brace.

Newcastle are $11 outsiders despite their stunning recent surge. With both teams on a short turnaround, I’ll take the underdogs with a couple of goals’ head-start.

Best Bet: Handicap – Newcastle +2 @ $1.91

Same Game Multi: Both Teams To Score; Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Mason Mount @ $5.08

01:00 (AEDT), Mon 14th Mar @ Elland Road, Leeds

History: Played 60: Leeds 24 V Norwich 20 (16 Draws)

Last meeting: October 31, 2021 (EPL): Leeds 2 d Norwich 1 at Carrow Road

Final Thoughts: Another pair of teams on a three-day turnaround with Norwich hosting Chelsea and Leeds facing a crunch game against Aston Villa on Friday morning (AEDT).

The relegation ship may have already sailed for Norwich, but for Leeds this represents a massive opportunity to stave off the bottom-three.

Leeds won 2-1 at Norwich in Week 10, Rapinha and Rodrigo scoring either side of Andrew Omobadmidele’s strike for the Canaries during a five-minute flurry in the second half.

Leeds’ performance against Villa may provide a confidence boost…or send them spiralling further. At this stage, $5.50 underdogs Norwich hold the value in this cellar-dweller showdown.

Best Bet: Handicap – Norwich +1 @ $2.40

Same Game Multi: Result – Draw; Total – Under 2.5 @ $5.36

01:00 (AEDT), Mon 14th Mar @ Goodison Park, Liverpool

History: Played 137: Everton 63 V Wolverhampton 47 (27 Draws)

Last meeting: November 1, 2021 (EPL): Wolverhampton 2 d Everton 1 at Molineux Stadium

Final Thoughts: If Burnley win or draw this weekend, Everton will find themselves in the bottom-three with a loss to Wolverhampton.

Everton are getting no respite from their harrowing freefall. The Toffees have last seven of their last eight, have not scored in their last three games and were pummelled 5-0 by Tottenham in a season-worst defeat last weekend.

Wolves are on a three-day turnaround from their home catch-up against Watford.

Wolverhampton beat Everton 2-1 at home in Week 10 courtesy of first-half goals to Max Kilman and Raul Jimenez.

Getting an opponent of Everton’s – particularly a decent outfit stationed in the top half – as an underdog is an absolute gift.

Best Bet: Result – Wolverhampton @ $3.25

Same Game Multi: Handicap – Wolverhampton +1; Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Hee-Chan Hwang @ $8.61

01:00 (AEDT), Mon 14th Mar @ London Stadium, London

History: Played 115: West ham 43 V Aston Villa 38 (34 Draws)

Last meeting: October 31, 2021 (EPL): West Ham 4 d Aston Villa 0 at Villa Park

Final Thoughts: Sixth-placed West Ham’s top-four bid is at a critical juncture as they sit two points behind Arsenal, who have three games in hand. After going unbeaten in their previous four games, the Irons went down 1-0 at Liverpool last weekend. Key attacker Jarrod Bowen left the field injured during the first half.

Meanwhile, West Ham will be on a three-day turnaround from their Europa League fixture at Sevilla.

Aston Villa, fizzing from their recent thrashings of Brighton and Southampton, will be on an identical turnaround from their catch-up match at Leeds.

West Ham are unbeaten in their last seven games against Aston Villa, running away with it 4-1 at Villa Park in Week 10. I’m happy to get behind Hammers at a decent price at home given how much is at stake, but Villa should provide stiff resistance.

Best Bet: Result – West Ham @ $2.20

Same Game Multi: Both Teams To Score; Anytime Goalscorer – Michail Antonio; Total – Over 2.5 @ $5.06

01:00 (AEDT), Mon 14th Mar @ St Mary’s Stadium, Southampton

History: Played 86: Southampton 38 V Watford 26 (22 Draws)

Last meeting: October 30, 2021 (EPL): Southampton 1 d Watford 0 at Vicarage Road

Final Thoughts: Southampton went into last week as one of the EPL’s form teams, climbing to ninth with five wins and four draws from their previous 10 games. But after beating up on struggling Everton and Norwich in the previous two rounds, they were given a wake-up call courtesy of a 4-0 loss at Villa Park. They will be backing up from Friday’s (AEDT) tough home assignment against in-form Newcastle before hosting lowly Watford.

The second-last Hornets will be playing their second away game in four days after facing Wolverhampton in a catch-up match.

Southampton are unbeaten in their last seven against Watford. Che Adams’ 20th-minute goal secured a 1-0 away win for the Saints in Week 10.

Regardless of the teams’ respective catch-up results, Southampton should get the job done at home here.

Best Bet: Southampton To Win To Nil @ $2.63

Same Game Multi: Result – Southampton; Total – Under 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Che Adams @ $6.61

03:30 (AEDT), Mon 14th Mar @ Emirates Stadium, London

History: Played 147: Arsenal 69 V Leicester 33 (45 Draws)

Last meeting: October 30, 2021 (EPL): Arsenal 2 d Leicester 0 at King Power Stadium

Final Thoughts: Arsenal are in the box-seat for a Champions League spot, sitting fourth with three games in hand. The Gunners have won eight and drawn one of their last 10, winning their last four straight. They came away from last weekend’s road trip to Watford with a 3-2 win.

Leicester City are striving to salvage some pride from a highly disappointing campaign. The 12th-placed Foxes have won their last two against Burnley (2-0) and Leeds (1-0), boosted by Jamie Vardy’s recent return from injury. Harvey Barnes netted the winner against Leeds.

Gabriel and Emile Smith Rowe scored inside 20 minutes to drive Arsenal to a 2-0 win at Leicester in Week 10.

Arsenal look about right as $1.50 favourites at home given their performances over the past couple of months, though Leicester are better equipped to make a contest of it than they were a few weeks ago.

Best Bet: Handicap – Draw (Arsenal -1) @ $3.50

Same Game Multi: Result – Arsenal; Both Teams To Score; Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Alexandre Lacazette @ $5.35

07:00 (AEDT), Tue 15th Mar @ Selhurst Park, London

History: Played 66: Man City 35 V Crystal Palace 17 (14 Draws)

Last meeting: October 30, 2021 (EPL): Crystal Palace 2 d Man City 0 at Etihad Stadium

Final Thoughts: Premier League leaders Manchester City are coming under significant pressure from Liverpool in the title race and will be acutely aware of how crucial any slip-up is from here on out.

Since their 3-2 loss to Tottenham in Week 26, the defending champs have accounted for Everton (1-0) and flexed their muscle against Man United (4-1). Kevin de Bruyne scored twice in the first half and Riyad Mahrez bagged a second-half brace as the Citizens buried their derby rivals.

Crystal Palace have run into a bit of form lately, losing just one of their six and picking up strong wins over Watford (4-1) and Wolverhampton (2-0) in the past three rounds. Wilfried Zaha has scored three goals in 10th-placed Palace’s last three games.

Crystal Palace have won just three of their last 23 against Man City, but they pulled off a king-sized upset in Week 10 with a 2-0 victory at the Etihad with Wilfried Zaha and Conor Gallagher scoring the goals.

City should be adequately recovered from their UCL tie at home against Sporting CP on Thursday (AEDT) before taking care of plucky Palace.

Best Bet: Handicap – Man City -1 @ $1.83

Same Game Multi: Result – Man City; Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Raheem Sterling @ $3.50