EPL Tips & Preview – Week 28

Palmerbet Blog

Find the back of the net with tips for Week 28 of the EPL season, including a massive Manchester derby at Etihad Stadium.

23:30 (AEDT), Sat 5th Mar @ King Power Stadium, Leicester

History: Played 126: Leeds 48 V Leicester 44 (34 Draws)

Last meeting: November 7, 2021 (EPL): 1-1 draw at Elland Road

Final Thoughts: Leicester City are on a four-day turnaround from a much-needed 2-0 win at Burnley midweek. Another underwhelming result loomed until James Maddison opened the scoring in the 82nd minute, before the returning Jamie Vardy scored a sealer. But the Foxes still languish in 12th spot after breaking their two-month winless streak.

Leeds, meanwhile, are dangling just two points above the relegation zone after picking up just one point from their past six games. They have conceded 20 goals in their past four games and were taken to the cleaners by Liverpool (6-0) and Tottenham (4-0) in the past fortnight.

The teams drew 1-all at Elland Road earlier this season, with Rapinha and Harvey Barnes scoring first-half goals. Leeds bagged a 3-1 upset at King Power Stadium last season – their first away win over Leicester in a decade.

Vardy’s presence and the confidence-booster of a long-awaited win should be enough for Leicester to get the three points, with Leeds now boasting the worst defence in the league.

Best Bet: Result – Leicester @ $1.80

Same Game Multi: Handicap – Leicester -1; Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Jamie Vardy @ $5.89

02:00 (AEDT), Sun 6th Mar @ Turf Moor, Burnley

History: Played 103: Chelsea 40 V Burnley 38 (25 Draws)

Last meeting: November 6, 2021 (EPL): 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge

Final Thoughts: Chelsea’s busy knockout schedule saw last weekend’s league fixture against Leicester postponed. They lost a scoreless EFL Cup final to Liverpool on penalties, before coming from behind twice to squeeze past Luton Town in the FA Cup’s fifth round. The Blues are third in the EPL with games in hand, rediscovering their defensive steel to win their last two against Tottenham (2-0) and Burnley (1-0).

Burnley are 18th on the ladder after their 2-0 home loss in a midweek catch-up against Leicester. The Clarets had rallied with two wins (including an upset of Spurs) and four draws (including shock stalemates with Arsenal and Man United) in their previous seven games.

Burnley have managed just one win in their last 15 matches against Chelsea, but they held the heavyweights to a 1-all draw at Stamford Bridge in Week 11 with Matej Vydra bagging an 80th-minute equaliser for the Clarets.

With both clubs on a short turnaround, Chelsea’s depth, attacking strike and stingy defence will carry them to the desired result as they aim to consolidate their top-four standing – and perhaps keep a faint glimmer of title hope alive. Thomas Tuchel’s charges have kept 11 clean sheets this season, while Burnley have been held scoreless 11 times.

Best Bet: Chelsea To Win To Nil @ $2.13

Same Game Multi: Result – Chelsea; Total – Under 3.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Hakim Ziyech @ $5.41

02:00 (AEDT), Sun 6th Mar @ Villa Park, Birmingham

History: Played 81: Aston Villa 29 V Southampton 29 (23 Draws)

Last meeting: November 5, 2021 (EPL): Southampton 1 d Aston Villa 0 at St Mary’s Stadium

Final Thoughts: In-form Southampton head to Birmingham aiming to extend their five-match winning streak. The Saints have surged to ninth with back-to-back 2-0 wins over Everton and Norwich; they have lost just one of their last 10 games, also upsetting West Ham and Tottenham during that period. Meanwhile, they got another win over West Ham in the FA Cup midweek, winning 3-1.

Aston Villa, 13th on the ladder, bounced back from consecutive 1-0 losses to lowly Newcastle and Watford with a surprise 2-0 victory at Brighton last weekend.

Villa have won just one of their last 11 against Southampton, who prevailed 1-0 at home in Week 11 courtesy of an early Adam Armstrong goal.

Aston Villa’s return to form sees them installed as $2.30 favourites at home. But given Southampton’s showings over an extended period – with only Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Man United netting more points than the Saints over their past 10 EPL games – they are very hard to resist as the underdog.

Best Bet: Result – Southampton @ $3.00

Same Game Multi: Handicap – Southampton +1; Both Teams To Score; Anytime Goalscorer – Che Adams @ $4.81

02:00 (AEDT), Sun 6th Mar @ Carrow Road, Norwich

History: Played 61: Norwich 28 V Brentford 22 (11 Draws)

Last meeting: November 6, 2021 (EPL): Norwich 28 V Brentford 22 (11 Draws)

Final Thoughts: Last-placed Norwich City host a Brentford side that has slipped dangerous towards bottom-three territory.

After a brief resurgence that netted two wins and a draw in three games, Norwich have lost three straight to Man City (4-0), Liverpool (3-1) and Southampton (2-0) – three of the EPL’s more in-form teams, it should be noted. The Canaries’ FA Cup run came to an end with a fifth-round loss at Liverpool midweek.

Brentford’s bright promotion campaign has gone off the rails, managing just one point from their last eight games. They went down at home to Newcastle 2-0 last weekend and have scored just one goal in their last four games. The Bees are just three points ahead of 18th-placed Burnley, who have played two less games.

Norwich won the battle of the promoted clubs 2-1 at Brentford in Week 11, extending their unbeaten streak in the rivalry to six matches.

Brentford, somewhat surprisingly, are narrow favourites on the road – despite picking up just two points from their last nine away games. This shapes as do-or-die for the Canaries, who have produced some moderate form at home, and I’ll back them to get the job done.

Best Bet: Result – Norwich @ $2.88

Same Game Multi: Handicap – Norwich +1; Total – Under 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Teema Pukki @ $4.92

02:00 (AEDT), Sun 6th Mar @ St James’ Park, Newcastle

History: Played 29: Brighton 12 V Newcastle 9 (8 Draws)

Last meeting: November 6, 2021 (EPL): 1-1 draw at Amex Stadium

Final Thoughts: Newcastle United are cooking with gas now, surging to a season-high 14th courtesy of a seven-match unbeaten streak. After snaring a 1-all draw at West Ham in Week 26, the Magpies’ 2-0 victory at Brentford – with Joe Willock scoring for the second straight game – was their fourth in five outings.

It’s been a tough few weeks for overachieving Brighton. After losing just four of their first 23 games, the 10th-placed Seagulls have dropped three on the trot without scoring – at Man United (2-0) and at home to unfancied Burnley (3-0) and Aston Villa (2-0).

Brighton are unbeaten in their last nine matches against Newcastle. The Seagulls won 3-0 at home and away last season, while the teams drew 1-all at Amex Stadium in Week 11 this season.

But the Magpies should snap the drought and win this battle of the birds, playing with consistency and confidence under Eddie Howe. Brighton are right off the boil and are set to struggle against a Newcastle side whose only loss in their last eight home games was to Man City.

Best Bet: Result – Newcastle @ $2.63

Same Game Multi: Result – Newcastle; Brighton Total – Under 0.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Chris Wood @ $3.00

02:00 (AEDT), Sun 6th Mar @ Molineux Park, Wolverhampton

History: Played 71: Wolverhampton 29 V Crystal Palace 23 (19 Draws)

Last meeting: November 6, 2021 (EPL): Crystal Palace 2 d Wolverhampton 0 at Selhurst Park

Final Thoughts: Wolverhampton are desperate to get back on track after their top-four bolter bid suffered a couple of blows in recent weeks. Wolves put together a run of six wins and a draw in an eight-game stretch, but they are in eighth after consecutive losses to Arsenal (2-1) and West Ham (1-0) – teams they would be ahead of had they won.

Crystal Palace are meandering along in 11th with no danger of relegation and hoping to push into the top half. They have won only one of their last eight – a 4-1 demolition job at Watford in last week’s catch-up match – and drew 1-all at home to Burnley in Week 27.

Both teams scoring has hit just once in the teams’ last eight matches, none of which produced more than two goals. Palace prevailed 2-0 at home in Week 11 with Wilfried Zaha and Conor Gallagher scoring in the second half.

Wolves were far from disgraced in their recent losses and have enough residual form on the board to account for a middling team like Palace at home.

Best Bet: Half-time/Full-time – Wolverhampton/Wolverhampton @ $3.75

Same Game Multi: Result – Wolverhampton; Total – Under 3.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Raul Jimenez @ $6.25

04:30 (AEDT), Sun 6th Mar @ Anfield, Liverpool

History: Played 144: Liverpool 78 V West Ham 29 (37 Draws)

Last meeting: November 7, 2021 (EPL): West Ham 3 d Liverpool 2 at London Stadium

Final Thoughts: It’s second versus fifth but Liverpool are the shortest favourites of the round at just $1.29 to account for West Ham.

Last weekend’s clash with Arsenal was postponed to allow Liverpool to take out the EFL Cup with a penalty shootout victory over Chelsea in the final. The Reds also accounted for Norwich (2-1) in FA Cup action on Thursday (AEDT). Jurgen Klopp’s charges are on a six-match winning streak in the EPL – including a 6-0 rout of Leeds last time out with Mo Salah and Sadio Mane both scoring twice – to shave Man City’s lead to just six points (Liverpool have a game in hand).

Top-four hopefuls West Ham are unbeaten in their last four, bookending draws against Leicester and Newcastle with 1-0 wins over Watford and Wolverhampton. Tomas Soucek’s 59th-minute goal was enough to take down Wolves last weekend. But the Irons were eliminated from the FA Cup 3-1 by Southampton midweek and will have one eye on next Friday’s (AEDT)

West Ham snapped a 10-match winless run against Liverpool with a 3-2 upset at London Stadium in Week 11.

While they look under the odds, Liverpool’s ninth straight win at Anfield (with six of the current streak coming with out conceding a goal) looks highly likely.

Best Bet: Half-time/Full-time @ $1.83

Same Game Multi: Handicap – Liverpool -1; Total – Over 3.5; First Goalscorer – Mo Salah @ $9.09

01:00 (AEDT), Mon 7th Mar @ Vicarage Road, Watford

History: Played 33: Arsenal 19 V Watford 12 (2 Draws)

Last meeting: November 7, 2021 (EPL): Arsenal 1 d Watford 0 at Emirates Stadium

Final Thoughts: Sixth-placed Arsenal are chasing a fourth straight EPL win as they head Vicarage Road, with their hosts stuck fighting in the relegation trenches.

Arsenal haven’t lost a league game since New Year’s Day, while they have seen off Wolverhampton (1-0), Brentford (2-1) and Wolves again (2-1) in their last three. The Gunners are two points outside the top four but have played only 24 games – equal-least of any club.

Watford are second-last are four points from safety, but they are still capable of a shock result. The Hornets, on a three-day turnaround from a 4-1 thrashing at home at the hands of Palace, held Man United to a scoreless draw at Old Trafford.

Arsenal have won five and drawn one of their last six against Watford, getting up 1-0 at home in Week 11 after Emile Smith-Rowe scored in the 56th minute.

Watford have lost seven straight at Vicarage Road by a combined 19-4. Arsenal have won their last three on the road by a combined 10-1.

Best Bet: Handicap – Arsenal -1 @ $2.63

Same Game Multi: Result – Arsenal; Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Emile Smith-Rowe @ $5.47

03:30 (AEDT), Mon 7th Mar @ Etihad Stadium, Manchester

History: Played 186: Man United 77 V Man City 56 (53 Draws)

Last meeting: November 6, 2021 (EPL): Man City 2 d Man United 0 at Old Trafford

Final Thoughts: The second Manchester derby of the 2021-22 season comes at a crucial juncture in both heavyweights’ campaigns.

Manchester City are six points in front at the top of the table, winning 15 and drawing one of their last 17 games. They bounced back from a last-gasp 3-2 loss to Spurs in Week 26 with a scratchy 1-0 win at Everton last weekend, getting up through an 82nd-minute Phil Foden goal. Elsewhere, City beat Peterborough United 2-0 in the fifth round of the FA Cup midweek, while they are also gearing up for a UCL Round of 16 leg at Sporting CP next Thursday (AEDT).

On the surface, one loss in Manchester United’s last 15 games is hard to be upset with. But the fourth-placed Red Devils have left plenty of points out on the pitch during that run – including an insipid scoreless draw against lowly Watford last weekend. They had drawn 1-all at Atletico Madrid three days earlier in a Europa League tie.

United have had the better of the derby in recent times, winning three of the last five Premier League clashes with one drawn. But City won 2-0 at Old Trafford in Week 11 after an Eric Bailly own goal and a strike on halftime from Bernardo Silva.

Man City are just $1.20 to win back-to-back titles, but a loss here gives second-placed Liverpool a real sniff. The derby element also makes City’s $1.36 favouritism look significantly overblown – they’re not infallible and an upset result would not surprise, despite the frustrations United cause their fans in games they should be winning comfortably.

Best Bet: Handicap – Man United +1 @ $3.20

Same Game Multi: Both Teams To Score; Handicap – Man United +2; Anytime Goalscorer – Riyad Mahrez; Anytime Goalscorer – Cristiano Ronaldo @ $9.35

07:00 (AEDT), Tue 8th Mar @ Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

History: Played 183: Tottenham 68 V Everton 57 (58 Draws)

Last meeting: November 7, 2021 (EPL): 0-0 draw at Goodison Park

Final Thoughts: Tottenham are striving to stay in the top-four race. Everton are in genuine danger of being relegated. Plenty at stake in London in the Week 28 closer.

Seventh-placed Spurs have been as inscrutable as ever over the past six weeks. After arresting a three-match losing streak with a 3-2 stoppage time win at Man City, they went down 1-0 at Burnley. Three days later, Antonio Conte’s charges pummelled Leeds 4-0 at Elland Road. Then they were rolled 1-0 in the FA Cup by Championship club Middlesbrough on Wednesday (AEDT).

Though they have a couple of games in hand, Everton’s 17th-placed standing – just one point ahead of the bottom-three – is disastrous, with the Toffees winning just two and drawing two of their last 17. Frank Lampard’s arrival as manager has failed to turn their fortunes around; after a drought-breaking 3-0 defeat of battling Leeds, they have gone down to Southampton (2-0) and Man City (1-0).

Tottenham have won just one of their last seven against Everton. The teams played out a scoreless draw at Goodison Park in Week 11, while Everton won at Tottenham for the first time in 12 years last season, 1-0.

Both teams are under intense scrutiny, but only one appears capable of playing winning football. Harry Kane is copping plenty of criticism still but he is scoring goals – as is the irrepressible Son Heung-min. Spurs will get up.

Best Bet: Handicap – Tottenham -1 @ $2.63

Same Game Multi: Result – Tottenham; Half-time Result – Tottenham; Total – Over 2.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Harry Kane @ $5.72