Find the back of the net with tips for Week 27 of the EPL season as the title race, top-four battle and relegation picture start to heat up.
07:00 (AEDT), Sat 26th Feb @ St Mary’s Stadium, Southampton
History: Played 130: Southampton 51 V Norwich 41 (38 Draws)
Last meeting: November 20, 2021 (EPL): Norwich 2 d Southampton 1 at Carrow Road
Final Thoughts: Southampton are on the march, climbing to 10th with four wins and four draws in their last nine games. Their current four-match unbeaten run includes 1-all draws against Man City and Man United, and wins over Tottenham and Everton. After a scoreless first half last weekend, the Saints toppled the Toffees 2-0 with goals to Stuart Armstrong and Shane Long.
Following a brief revival that temporarily lifted them out of the bottom-three, Norwich City are back in last place courtesy of back-to-back losses to big dogs Man City (4-0) and Liverpool (3-1). They have scored an EPL-low 15 goals this season, though seven of those have come in their last five games.
Norwich prevailed 2-1 at home against Southampton earlier this season, coming from behind via goals to Teemu Pukki and Grant Hanley after Che Adams opened the scoring for the Saints.
Don’t expect a repeat, though, with Southampton in tremendous form and losing just once at St Mary’s Stadium this season – back in Week 6.
Same Game Multi: Result – Southampton; Total – Over 3.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Armando Broja; Both Teams To Score @ $9.53
23:30 (AEDT), Sat 26th Feb @ Elland Road, Leeds
History: Played 100: Tottenham 38 V Leeds 33 (29 Draws)
Last meeting: November 21, 2021 (EPL): Tottenham 2 d Leeds 1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Final Thoughts: Leeds confront their third heavyweight in seven days and will be desperate to avoid a third straight avalanche of goals against them. After going down 4-2 to Man United last weekend, Leeds were annihilated 6-0 by Liverpool on Thursday (AEDT). They’ve leaked 3-plus goals in eight of their last 11 games for an EPL-worst 56 goals against for the season. Leeds, 15th, are only three points above the relegation zone.
Tottenham are also on a short turnaround from a midweek catch-up fixture – a shock 1-0 loss at Burnley. It was a swift comedown from their 3-2 upset of Man City at Etihad Stadium and a blow to their top-four hopes, with Spurs now in eighth after losing four of their last five.
The teams’ last four encounters have been won by the home team, including Spurs’ 2-1 victory in London in Week 12. Leeds won 3-1 at Elland Road late last season.
Tottenham remain unreliable as ever, but Leeds’ sieve-like defence should provide Antonio Conte’s side to get back on the rails.
Best Bet: Handicap – Tottenham -1 @ $3.25
02:00 (AEDT), Sun 27th Feb @ Brentford Community Stadium, Brentford
History: Played 13: Newcastle 8 V Brentford 4 ( 1 Draw)
Last meeting: November 20, 2021 (EPL): 3-3 draw at St James’ Park
Final Thoughts: Early-season overachievers Brentford may be getting a touch nervous despite sitting in 14th, with the bottom-three only four points away. The Bees have managed just one point from their last seven games – from a scoreless draw at home to Palace in Week 25 – and went down 2-1 to Arsenal last weekend. The promoted outfit have lost their attacking touch, scoring jus six goals in their last 10 games.
Remarkably, Newcastle – in the bottom-three for three months straight until three weeks ago – will leapfrog Brentford with a win here. Though still very much in the relegation picture, the resurgent Magpies are unbeaten in their last six games. After three straight wins over Leeds, Everton and Villa, they drew 1-all at West Ham last weekend.
The teams produced a thrilling 3-all draw in Newcastle in Week 12, with four goals scored in the first half.
Newcastle boast just one win on the road this season but their underdog value is hard to pass up with these teams trending in opposite directions.
Best Bet: Result – Newcastle @ $3.00
02:00 (AEDT), Sun 27th Feb @ Selhurst Park, London
History: Played 52: Burnley 21 V Crystal Palace 13 (18 Draws)
Last meeting: November 20, 2021 (EPL): 3-3 draw at Turf Moor
Final Thoughts: Crystal Palace snapped a six-match winless streak midweek with a 4-1 drubbing of Watford – the 11th-placed Eagles’ highest goal tally this season. Wilfried Zaha bagged a late brace in an encouraging sign for a side that was held to nil in its previous two games against Brentford and Chelsea.
Burnley, meanwhile, are on an intriguing crusade to avoid a relegation fate that seemed a fait accompli until recently. The Clarets have lost just one of their last six – a 1-0 defeat to Liverpool – and are coming off two wins in the past week against Brighton (3-0) and Tottenham (1-0) after winning just one of their first 21 games. Ben Mee’s 71st-minute goal secured the upset of Spurs on Thursday (AEDT).
After chalking up three straight wins to nil against Palace, Burnley’s home fixture in Week 12 finished in a 3-all draw. Christian Benteke notched a first-half brace for Palace but the Clarets twice came from behind to earn a point.
Confident Burnley have conceded just two goals in their past six games and are mighty tempting as $4 outsiders, but after their midweek turnaround Palace should do enough to earn a share of the spoils here.
Best Bet: Result – Draw @ $3.50
02:00 (AEDT), Sun 27th Feb @ Amex Stadium, Brighton
History: Played 28: Aston Villa 14 V Brighton 5 (9 Draws)
Last meeting: November 20, 2021 (EPL): Aston Villa 2 d Brighton 0 at Villa Park
Final Thoughts: Ninth-placed Brighton are aiming to get back on track after disappointing back-to-back losses to Man United (2-0) and cellar dwellers Burnley (3-0). The Seagulls had lost just four of their first 23 games and were on a seven-match unbeaten streak, but their defence fell apart in unlikely fashion at home to the Clarets.
Aston Villa are relatively safe in 13th as far as relegation goes, but they are eager to turn things around after winning just one of their last seven. They have given some lowly teams a leg up in the past fortnight, losing 1-0 to both Newcastle and Watford.
Brighton have won just one of their last 13 games against Aston Villa. Ollie Watkins (84’) and Tyrone Mings (89’) bagged late goals as Villa prevailed 2-0 at home in Week 12. The teams’ last two clashes at Amex Stadium finished in stalemates.
Both teams have been dreadful in recent weeks. But Brighton have been easily the better of the sides across the season and are the value option at home.
Best Bet: Result – Brighton @ $2.25
Same Game Multi: Brighton To Win To Nil; Anytime Goalscorer – Neal Maupay @ $5.94
02:00 (AEDT), Sun 27th Feb @ Old Trafford, Manchester
History: Played 36: Man United 24 V Watford 7 (5 Draws)
Last meeting: November 20, 2021 (EPL): Watford 4 d Man United 1 at Vicarage Road
Final Thoughts: Despite some indifferent results in recent times, Manchester United have climbed into the top four on the back of emphatic wins over Brighton (2-0) and Leeds (4-2). Bruno Fernandes scored in both. United are on a short turnaround from a Champions League tie, drawing 1-all at Atletico Madrid after Anthony Elanga (who also scored the last goal against Leeds) found an 80th-minute equaliser.
Second-last Watford are firming for the drop after notching just one win and two draws from their last 13 games. Their drought-breaking 1-0 win at Villa Park last weekend was tainted by a dismal 4-1 loss at home to Crystal Palace on Thursday (AEDT). The Hornets have not scored more than one goal in their last 12 matches.
Watford produced one of the season’s shock results in Week 12 by thrashing United 4-1 at Vicarage Road, their second straight home win over the heavyweights. But they have not won at Old Trafford since the 1978 EFL Cup, losing their last 11 straight at the venue.
That November humiliation will be in the back of the Red Devils’ minds – they’ll be fiercely determined to put a similar score on the Hornets at Old Trafford.
Best Bet: Handicap – Man United -2 @ $3.25
Same Game Multi: Handicap – Man United; Total – Over 3.5; Anytime Goalscorer – Cristiano Ronaldo; Anytime Goalscorer – Bruno Fernandes @ $8.43
04:30 (AEDT), Sun 27th Feb @ Goodison Park, Liverpool
History: Played 192: Man City 77 V Everton 68 (47 Draws)
Last meeting: November 21, 2021 (EPL): Man City 3 d Everton 0 at Etihad Stadium
Final Thoughts: Everton are set to bear the brunt of Manchester City’s fury this weekend. Stunned 3-2 at home by Tottenham in Week 26 after scoring a 92nd-minute equaliser but conceding in the 95th minute, City have seen their EPL lead whittled to just three points.
The defending champs had won 14 and drawn one of their previous 15 games, conceding more than one goal just once during that run.
Everton remain firmly on the ropes and in genuine relegation danger, despite having a couple of games in hand and grabbing a drought-breaking 3-0 win over Leeds in Week 25. The Toffees’ 2-0 loss at Southampton last weekend was their 12th from their last 16 games and fifth from their last six. Everton are 16th and just two points above the bottom-three.
Man City have won their last nine straight against Everton, including their last three by a combined 10-0. Raheem Sterling, Rodri and Bernardo Silva scored as City carved out a 3-0 victory at Etihad Stadium in Week 12.
Decent value in a City clean sheet win with Everton held to nil seven times this season.
Best Bet: Man City To Win To Nil @ $2.06
Same Game Multi: Handicap – Man City -2; Anytime Goalscorer – Riyad Mahrez; Anytime Goalscorer – Raheem Sterling @ $8.19
01:00 (AEDT), Mon 28th Feb @ London Stadium, London
History: Played 68: West Ham 31 V Wolverhampton 23 (14 Draws)
Last meeting: November 20, 2021 (EPL): Wolverhampton 1 d West Ham 0 at Molineux Stadium
Final Thoughts: Arguably the game of the round with sixth-placed West Ham hosting seventh-placed Wolverhampton.
Hammers are coming off underwhelming back-to-back draws against Leicester (2-2) and Newcastle (1-1). Wolverhampton have won five of their last seven and beat Leicester 2-1 last weekend, but they are on a tight turnaround from a 2-1 loss to Arsenal on Friday morning (AEDT).
Wolves led for over 70 minutes against the Gunners before leaking two late goals, including a 95th minute winner.
Wolves have won five of their last seven against West Ham to nil, including a 1-0 home victory in Week 12 after losing both games last season. Both teams scoring has hit just once in their last nine meetings.
The Irons are warm $2.10 favourites at home but Wolves have been in better recent form overall and have won four of their last five on the road.
Best Bet: Handicap – Wolverhampton +1 @ $1.80
Same Game Multi: Total – Over 2.5; Both Teams To Score; Anytime Goalscorer – Michail Antonio; Anytime Goalscorer – Raul Jiminez @ $11.73
06:45 (AEDT), Wed 2nd Mar @ Turf Moor, Burnley
History: Played 117: Burnley 46 V Leicester 38 (33 Draws)
Last meeting: September 25, 2021 (EPL): 2-2 draw at King Power Stadium
Final Thoughts: Burnley will be lining up for their third match in seven days in this Week 22 catch-up fixture, while Leicester have a leisurely nine-day break following the postponement of their Week 27 clash with Chelsea.
The Clarets are backing up three days after their road trip to Crystal Palace.
Leicester have a few games in hand but will be bitterly disappointed with their 12th-place standing. The injury-ravaged Foxes haven’t won since December 28 and are coming off a 2-1 loss at Wolverhampton. Jamie Vardy is closing in on a return but will not be back to face Burnley.
Burnley have managed a win and two draws in their last four encounters with Leicester. Vardy notched a brace (as well as an own goal) as the Foxes fought from behind twice for a 2-all draw at home to the Clarets in Week 6.
Without Vardy, it’s hard to get behind Leicester as a $2.30 away favourite, despite Burnley’s hectic schedule.