AFL Tips & Preview – Round 6

Round 6 of the 2022 AFL season features three particularly tough games to call on what should be an entertaining Anzac Round.

Friday 22nd April, 19:50 (AEST)

GWS St Kilda
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 12: GWS 5 v St Kilda 6 (1 draw)

Last Meeting: AFL R1 2021: GWS Giants 11.12 (78) lost to St Kilda 13.8 (86)

Final Thoughts: An intriguing clash to kick off Round 6, and an even tougher one to pick. At 1-4 the Giants have had a terrible start to the season given they made a semi-final in 2021, and it’s not a stretch to declare that a loss here could spell curtains on their 2022 campaign. With just one impressive performance to date — a win over what was a lacklustre Suns outfit — has shown Leon Cameron’s men are incapable of putting anything close to four quarters together. Star Toby Greene returns for this one, and not a moment too soon.

After a first-up loss, the Saints are flying. Four wins on the bounce has them looking every bit the finals side, and with one of the most dangerous forwards in the game. Max King, with 16 goals (equal competition most), has already shortened from $13 into $5 for the Coleman Medal. “When St Kilda go to him, no team gets greater return for score on the board than when they go to Max King, he is the no.1 guy,” Nathan Buckley said this week.

Tip: To score 4+ goals, Max King (StK) @ $3.60

Saturday 23rd April, 13:45 (AEST)

Western Bulldogs Adelaide
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 47: Western Bulldogs 26 v Adelaide 21

Last Meeting: AFL R20 2021: Western Bulldogs 15.15 (105) dftd Adelaide 8.8 (56)

Final Thoughts: The Crows have won two of their last three (including a loss by less than a kick) and are beginning to show a level of maturity that — while they in all likelihood won’t challenge for the Top 8 in 2022 — is sustainable long-term. Skipper Rory Sloane’s season-ending ACL injury is gutting for the Crows faithful, and whether they can replace his on-field leadership is a big question.

For the Dogs, who have similarly won two of their past three, this clash represents a big opportunity to square the ledger at 3-3 and sneak into the Top 8 after a tough start to the season. They have a strong recent record over the Crows; Luke Beveridge’s men have won the last three encounters by an average of 47 points.

Tip: Margin, Western Bulldogs by 40+ @ $3.00

Saturday 23rd April, 16:35 (AEST)

Port Adelaide West Coast
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 36: Port Adelaide 20 v West Coast 16

Last Meeting: AFL R3 2021: West Coast 16.12 (108) dftd Port Adelaide 11.5 (71)

Final Thoughts: At the start of the season, you might’ve assumed this Anzac Round clash would be a blockbuster clash between two heavyweights jostling for a Top 4 spot. As it turns out, the Eagles and Power are languishing in 16th and 18th respectively with their season’s arguably over.

Recent clashes between these two clubs are split down the middle, with each winning two of the last four encounters. Incredibly, however, the Eagles have won their last five games against Port at the Adelaide Oval; the away venue proving a happy hunting ground. Both teams gave up a huge early jump last week. West Coast conceded 56 to Sydney before registering a point, while Port Adelaide were 50 points down midway through the second term against Carlton. How each respond, especially early, will be fascinating.

Tip: To score 2+ goals, Liam Ryan (WCE) @ $2.25

Saturday 23rd April, 19:40 (AEST)

Fremantle Carlton
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C

 

History: Played 37: Fremantle 20 v Carlton 17

Last Meeting: AFL R16 2021: Fremantle 8.16 (64) lost to Carlton 12.8 (80)

Final Thoughts: It’s rare for a club at 4-1 to have a percentage of just 102.6 (especially considering that of the five AFL clubs on 16 points, the next highest percentage is 130.3), but that underlines just how close some of Carlton’s wins have been thus far in 2022, with three victories inside two kicks. On the one hand it’s pleasing for Michael Voss that his side are getting through close ones, but in reality all three of those close wins should’ve been iced far earlier.

It’s unlikely they’ll get a big jump on the Dockers in this intriguing clash, with Justin Longmuir’s men conceding the second-least (behind Melbourne) points this season. One of the year’s surprise packets to date, the young Fremantle outfit (including gun youngster Andrew Brayshaw) are showing all the hallmarks of a finals team, and have already shortened from $2.50 into $1.62 in the Top 8 market.

Tip: Line, Fremantle -7.5 @ $1.90

Sunday 24th April, 13:10 (AEST)

North Melbourne Geelong
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 167: North Melbourne 63 v Geelong 103 (1 draw)

Last Meeting: AFL R20 2021: North Melbourne 6.6 (42) lost to Geelong 8.14 (62)

Final Thoughts: While Geelong are expected to yet again feature come the pointy end of 2022, losses like on Easter Monday against the Hawks again raises questions of their ability to go the whole way. They’ll be desperate to respond in this one, else risk slipping outside the Top 8. Pleasingly for Chris Scott, the Cats have won eight straight over North Melbourne dating back to 2016, and a lot would have to go wrong for that streak to be snapped.

For North, coach David Noble is crying out for week-to-week consistency. A horror loss to Brisbane was followed up with an honourable effort against the Swans, however last week his young side again slipped in a disheartening 68-point defeat to the Dogs. A competitive effort here needs to be the bare minimum.

Tip: Line, Geelong -28.5 @ $1.90

Sunday 24th April, 16:10 (AEST)

Gold Coast Brisbane
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C  I/C

 

History: Played 21: Gold Coast 6 v Brisbane 15

Last Meeting: AFL R19 2021: Brisbane Lions 17.18 (120) dftd Gold Coast 10.11 (71)

Final Thoughts: The Lions have a dominant record in the Q-clash, including victory in the last six encounters; five of six by 45 points or more. For that and several other reasons, the 22nd instalment of this rivalry points towards a comfortable win for Chris Fagan’s men. Why? Brisbane have shown they are a side capable of four-quarter efforts, week in, week out while the Suns are happy to turn it on when it suits, and be completely lacklustre the next week. It’s now a large sample size under Stuart Dew that show they struggle with consistency both in-game and across a longer period of the season. They’ll give themselves all week to see if Mabior Chol (adductor) and Jack Lukosius (knee) can prove their fitness.

Tip: Margin, Brisbane by 40+ @ $3.50

Sunday 24th April, 19:25 (AEST)

Richmond Melbourne
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C (from) I/C (from)

 

History: Played 193: Richmond 108 v Melbourne 83 (draws)

Last Meeting: AFL R6 2021: Melbourne 12.10 (82) dftd Richmond 6.12 (48)

Final Thoughts: It’s been a rare sight in the last five years to see Richmond at longer than $4 head-to-head odds, but such is their inconsistency in 2022 and Melbourne’s utter domination that this clash appears — on the surface at least — to be only headed one way. You’d be pretty silly to totally discount the Tigers given their backs-to-the-wall ability in recent years, but as described earlier this week, Melbourne are quite clearly the AFL’s best side at present, and are already shorter than $3 for the flag (currently $2.90 with Palmerbet).

On a more positive note for Richmond, they have won five of the last six against the Dees. However the most recent — last season, also in Round 6 at the MCG — was a fairly comprehensive 34-point win from Simon Goodwin’s men. Speaking of, they will likely have Ben Brown return this week.

Tip: Margin, Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.10

Monday 25th April, 12:30 (AEST)

Hawthorn Sydney
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C (from) I/C (from)

 

History: Played 169: Hawthorn 94 v Sydney 73 (2 draws)

Last Meeting: AFL R13 2021: Sydney 7.9 (51) lost to Hawthorn 14.5 (89)

Final Thoughts: Another clinical performance has pitted the Swans firmly in the ‘best of the rest’ category in 2022 (behind runaway flag favourites Melbourne). An incredible 11 goal kickers in a 63-point mauling of West Coast underlined Sydney’s spread, and the fact a majority of those were under 25 suggests the future is very bright for John Longmire’s men. They’ll likely have to go another week without their two biggest scoreboard hitters, too, with Lance Franklin and Tom Papley set to miss again.

The Swans come up against the story of Round 4, Hawthorn, whose $3.18 upset win over the Cats underlined that Sam Mitchell’s newly-moulded side are no flash in the pan this season. They also go into this one with happy memories of their last clash with Sydney; a 38-point clinical win despite starting $4.93 outsiders at the SCG. Expect this one to be tight.

Tip: Line, Sydney -6.5 @ $1.90

Monday 25th April, 15:20 (AEST)

Essendon Collingwood
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C (from) I/C (from)

 

History: Played 242: Essendon 106 v Collingwood 132 (4 draws)

Last Meeting: AFL R23 2021: Essendon 16.6 (102) dftd Collingwood 9.10 (64)

Final Thoughts: A month ago, most might’ve assumed the Bombers would start relatively healthy favourites on Anzac Day. After all, with a young side who had played finals footy in 2021, they were on the rise. Collingwood, by contrast, were the big unknown under an untried coach.

But Ben Rutten’s men start as $2.70 outsiders after a horror start to the year (1-4) that could spell curtains on their season in the next fortnight if there isn’t drastic change. “The way that they turned up to play against Geelong attitude-wise in the first round was really concerning,” club legend Tim Watson told SEN radio this week. “And the fact that they still can’t defend the ground on turnover is still a major, major concern about the way structurally they play. They need to be fixed.” The Pies could regain some firepower with Brody Mihocek, Jack Ginnivan and Beau McCreery all chances to return.

Tip: Line, Essendon +13.5 @ $1.90