AFL Tips & Preview – Round 14

Round 14 of the 2022 AFL season features a Thursday night blockbuster at the MCG, and a similarly hard-to-split game in Adelaide on Saturday afternoon.

Thursday 16th June, 19:20 (AEST)

Richmond Carlton
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 224: Richmond 96 v Carlton 126 (2 draws)

Last Meeting: AFL R1 2022: Carlton 14.17 (101) dftd Richmond 11.10 (76)

Final Thoughts: A blockbuster with a whole lot of intrigue to kick off Round 14, with two in-form clubs who have both won five of their last six games. Facing Richmond no longer holds any fears for Carlton, after a drought-snapping victory back in Round 1 stopped a run of 11 losses to the Tigers. What would give coach Michael Voss fears, however, is a distinct lack of capable talls in his backline. With Jacob Weitering, Oscar McDonald, Mitch McGovern and Luke Parks already out, Caleb Marchbank made a welcome return to AFL football after over 1,000 days out of the game last week. But after just one game back he too is on the sidelines again. If Tom Lynch returns for the in form Tigers, the contest between Richmond’s forwards and Carlton’s severely understrength backline will largely decide this one.

Tip: Margin, Richmond 1-39 @ $2.35

Friday 17th June, 19:50 (AEST)

St Kilda Essendon
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 217: St Kilda 70 v Essendon 143 (4 draws)

Last Meeting: AFL R3 2021: Essendon 22.11 (143) dftd St Kilda 9.14 (68)

Final Thoughts: While there were some positives for Essendon in their Round 13 loss to Carlton, the fact is that Ben Rutten’s men have won just one of their last eight games. They continue to leak goals and, perhaps unsurprisingly, only the lowly North Melbourne and West Coast have conceded more points to date in 2022.

The Saints will relish playing an out of sorts Essendon after a bruising loss to the Lions last weekend. Such is the current tight nature of the Top 8, defeat here could see them pushed out of the finals spots, something Brett Ratten would be all too aware of. Look for them to bounce back strongly.

Tip: Line, St Kilda -24.5 @ $1.90

Saturday 18th June, 13:45 (AEST)

Port Adelaide Sydney
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 32: Port Adelaide 12 v Sydney 20

Last Meeting: AFL R15 2021: Port Adelaide 12.9 (81) dftd Sydney 10.11 (71)

Final Thoughts: The Power were gallant in defeat to an in-form Richmond last week but, such is their predicament owing to a terrible (0-5) start to the season, can afford few more slip ups. Defeat here would leave them three games outside the Top 8 and little chance of making the finals. Port Adelaide have a strong recent record against the Swans, who they’ve beaten on each occasion since 2017. This includes three consecutive wins at the Adelaide Oval, by an average of 28 points apiece.

But this is a stronger Sydney side than recent years, and one that’s not only coming off victory against the reigning premiers but off a week off, too. They welcome back Lance Franklin, who has booted four goals in each of his last three games against the Power.

Tip: To score 2+ goals, Will Hayward (Syd) @ $2.90

Saturday 18th June, 16:35 (AEST)

West Coast Geelong
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C

 

History: Played 55: West Coast 27 v Geelong 27 (1 draw)

Last Meeting: AFL R6 2021: Geelong 21.10 (136) dftd West Coast 5.9 (39)

Final Thoughts: The Eagles are set to welcome back an absolute cavalcade of experience, with Dom Sheed, Elliot Yeo, Liam Ryan, Willie Rioli and Jeremy McGovern all big chances to return. And while their presence will be of huge relief to coach Adam Simpson, the reality is that experience has rarely translated into any form of on-field success in 2022. And, despite the fact these players are likely to be named in their final 22 and the fact they’re on home turf, they still start with a huge head-start in Palmerbet’s line market such is their horrid form.

The Eagles can’t look to recent history for reassurance either; the last outing between these sides saw Geelong run out 97-point winners. Forecast wet weather could bring the Total Points line into play for punters here.

Tip: Total Points, Under 149.5 @ $1.88

Saturday 18th June, 19:25 (AEST)

GWS Western Bulldogs
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C  I/C


History:
Played 14: GWS 6 v Western Bulldogs 8

Last Meeting: AFL R6 2021: GWS Giants 9.11 (65) lost to Western Bulldogs 15.14 (104)

Final Thoughts: The Giants are two from three to start the caretaker period under Mark McVeigh, but both victories were over cellar dwellers West Coast and North Melbourne respectively. As a result, we should get a far better gauge of where the side is currently at in what is expected to be a tight encounter at Giants Stadium.

While the Giants’ Top 8 hopes are largely done for 2022 (out to $29 with Palmerbet), the Dogs are still considered a huge chance at $2.60 despite being two games outside the eight. Luke Beveridge’s men have won three of their last four over the Giants, and with a tough month to come (games to come against Hawthorn, Brisbane, Sydney, and St Kilda), they must bank four points away from home here.

Tip: Margin, Western Bulldogs by 1-39 @ $2.55

Sunday 19th June, 15:20 (AEST)

Gold Coast Adelaide
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C (from) I/C (from)

 

History: Played 15: Gold Coast 1 v Adelaide 14

Last Meeting: AFL R3 2021: Adelaide 14.11 (95) dftd Gold Coast 12.13 (85)

Final Thoughts: No AFL club had a better win percentage against Gold Coast than the Crows, who have walked away with four points on 14 of their 15 encounters. But while they enter this clash on the back of a win over West Coast, Matthew Nicks’ side would need to play to a level above and beyond their current output to cause an upset on the road against the in form Suns.

Much has been made of Gold Coast’s favourable run home, which perhaps furthers the pressure on them in games like these. If they have any hopes of making their first ever AFL Finals series in 2022, they simply must bank four points here. Despite the favourable run to come, they are still $3.00 outsiders to finish in the Top 8 this year. They should welcome back Levi Casboult for this one.

Tip: Line, Adelaide +29.5 @ $1.90