AFL Tips & Preview – Round 12

Round 12 of the 2022 AFL season sees Melbourne again tested on home turf, before two Top 4 hopefuls slog it out in the west to round out the weekend.

Friday 3rd June, 19:50 (AEST)

Western Bulldogs Geelong
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 163: Western Bulldogs 57 v Geelong 104 (2 draws)

Last Meeting: AFL R14 2021: Geelong 12.11 (83) dftd Western Bulldogs 11.12 (78)

Final Thoughts: Neither the Dogs or Cats have played a Top 8 club in the last fortnight, and under the roof at Marvel Stadium this has all the hallmarks of a close one. Both have won three of their last four, but none of those have been decided by less than three goals. The Dogs have hauled themselves back inside the Top 8, putting themselves atop the mid-ladder logjam with a huge 101-point win over West Coast in Round 11 that could prove crucial to their percentage come season’s end.

The Cats are pushing for the further rung up the ladder, the Top 4, somewhere they’ve finished in each of the last three seasons. And with the lowly North Melbourne and West Coast to come inside their next three games, victory here could set them up in their push for the double chance.

Tip: H2H, Geelong @ $2.05

Saturday 4th June, 13:45 (AEST)

Adelaide West Coast
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 51: Adelaide 21 v West Coast 30

Last Meeting: AFL R11 2021: Brisbane Lions 19.15 (129) dftd GWS Giants 10.5 (65)

Final Thoughts: Just how much more grim can things get for West Coast in 2022? Just when you think they’ve hit rock bottom, new depths emerge. The Eagles have lost their last seven games on the trot by an average of 79 points, including three 100+ point losses at home. Their percentage of 49.7 is almost identical to Fitzroy (49.5) in 1996 (the season the club collapsed). It’s clear Adam Simpson is losing control of the group, which still contains a considerable number of premiership players from 2018.

The one kernel Simpson might hold onto going into this clash is that the Eagles have a brilliant recent record over the Crows, having won the last five encounters. The last three of these have all been by over 30 points. Adelaide themselves aren’t setting the world on fire either. After a solid start to the season saw them go 3-3, Matthew Nicks’ side have lost their last five on the trot. All things considered, however, they should enough to grab a much-needed win on home soil.

Tip: Line, West Coast +37.5 @ $1.90

Saturday 4th June, 16:45 (AEST)

Gold Coast North Melbourne
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 15: Gold Coast 7 v North Melbourne 8

Last Meeting: AFL R15 2021: North Melbourne 9.18 (72) dftd Gold Coast 9.9 (63)

Final Thoughts: Three wins in four games begs the question: Is this, Gold Coast’s 12th AFL season, the year they finally crack the Top 8? A favourable run home, starting with this clash against the lowly North Melbourne, certainly has them in with a chance. Three wins in their last four games — including against Top 4 hopefuls Sydney and Fremantle — has seen Stuart Dew’s side shorten from $10 into $3.80 in Palmerbet’s Top 8 market.

North Melbourne have now lost their last nine games, the last seven of which have been by over 45 points. The Suns have conceded an average of just 63.5 points in their last four games and, with Cam Zurhaar (foot) to miss at least the next fortnight, it’s hard to see David Noble’s men kicking a winning score.

Tip: Margin, Gold Coast by 1-39 @ $2.55

Saturday 4th June, 19:25 (AEST)

Melbourne Sydney
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C

 

History: Played 211: Melbourne 94 v Sydney 115 (2 draws)

Last Meeting: AFL R8 2021: Melbourne 10.7 (67) dftd Sydney 8.10 (58)

Final Thoughts: It took 17 games but finally, Melbourne’s winning streak has been snapped. Whether the defeat to Fremantle — where a 25-point lead turned into a 38-point defeat — exposed worrying cracks or was simply was the “loss they needed” may well be known at about 10:30pm on Saturday night. If the Swans can knock them off, then Simon Goodwin may begin to worry. One gets the sense, however, that they’ll come back hard. They’ll have to do so without their defensive marshal in Steven May, who they struggled without once he left the field with concussion in Round 11.

That loss is offset by the absence of Lance Franklin for the Swans, however, who was best-on-ground in Sydney’s thrilling win over Richmond last Friday. Melbourne will sense an opportunity to come back hard against a Swans outfit struggling defensively. The Bloods have conceded 100+ points in three of their last five games, and will need to sharpen up if they’re any chance of an upset against the premiership favourites.

Tip: Line, Sydney +23.5 @ $1.90

Saturday 4th June, 14:10 (AEST)

Hawthorn Collingwood
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 167: Hawthorn 69 v Collingwood 98

Last Meeting: AFL R21 2021: Hawthorn 15.7 (97) dftd Collingwood 12.6 (78)

Final Thoughts: The Pies come into another big Sunday clash at the MCG buoyed by last week’s thriller over Carlton. They’ll also be buoyed by the lacklustre effort thrown up by the Hawks; smashed to the tune of 67 points by Gold Coast in Darwin. And while Sam Mitchell’s side likely won’t roll over again back on home turf, it’s clear that four-quarter consistency remains largely elusive for Hawthorn in 2022.

That’s not to say they won’t cause an upset here, of course. The Hawks’ best has clearly been good enough this season, underlined by an underdog win over Brisbane just a fortnight ago. But something has clearly clicked with the Pies in the last fortnight. Victory here could see them back inside the Top 8, although a poor percentage will likely mean they remain outside for now. To win they’ll have to buck recent history; Collingwood have incredibly lost 13 of their last 14 against the Hawks at the MCG.

Tip: Margin, Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.15

Saturday 4th June, 17:20 (AEST)

Fremantle Brisbane
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C  I/C

 

History: Played 34: Fremantle 16 v Brisbane 18

Last Meeting: AFL R21 2021: Fremantle 8.6 (54) lost to Brisbane Lions 18.10 (118)

Final Thoughts: The best match of Round 12, without doubt, is saved for last. Fremantle bucked back-to-back defeats to come home with the wettest of sails against Melbourne last Saturday, to snap the premiers’ 17-game winning streak. The importance of the win can’t be understated and will give Justin Langmuir’s young side the confidence that they can certainly go deep in 2022.

It’s clear this season that it’s not ‘who’ you play, but ‘when’ you play them. And that couldn’t be more true for this clash. The Dockers face Brisbane at the right time, with Chris Fagan’s men flagging in recent weeks. They were hardly convincing against the Giants at home last week, while the previous week saw them upset by the lowly Hawthorn. In dry conditions, this could be a beauty.

Tip: Total Points, Over 162.5 @ $1.88