AFL – Round 11 in Review

Round 11 of the 2022 AFL season saw Melbourne’s streak end, while one of the game’s biggest stars again dragged his side over the line.

Here’s how it looked for punters: 

Dockers’ delight at the G

It was always going to come to an end, but not many expected it in Round 11.

Going into their clash against Fremantle, Melbourne’s winning streak was already on 17 with many posing the question of whether they could surpass the V/AFL record of 23 by Geelong from 1952-53. Palmerbet even had a dedicated market of when the streak might end. But the Dockers were a distant $4.80 H2H going into the Saturday twilight clash. Not just because of the Dees’ strong form, but Justin Longmuir’s men had lost back-to-back games. And they carried that form early into the game, giving up a 25-point halftime lead. At that point, few believed they could come back, but they did exactly that. And in completely rolling over Melbourne by 38-points, swung the pre-game line (+28.5) by over 10 goals.

New depths for Eagles

If you thought West Coast’s season couldn’t get worse, think again. A 101-point thumping at home to the Western Bulldogs — their second home loss by over 100 points in five games — was all things grim. The Dogs went in heavy $1.09 favourites, with a -40.5 line from Palmerbet. But like the Dockers, they too blew that out of the water by over 10 goals. Adam Simpson’s men have now lost their last seven in a row by an ave of 79 points. Perhaps the biggest indicator of their ineptitude is revealed in their current percentage on the AFL ladder. As ABC commentator Corbin Middlemas pointed out on Twitter, Fitzroy’s percentage in 1996 “when they were literally shutting the doors on the place” was 49.5%. Now? “The 2022 West Coast Eagles percentage is currently 49.7%. Right there in the conversation with as-grim-as-it-gets in competition history”.

The Eagles are into $2.10 in Palmerbet’s ‘Least Wins’ market for 2022, just behind favourites North Melbourne at $1.91.

Bud snares bag again

For the second time in the last month, Swans star Lance Franklin snared a bag at the SCG. Except unlike against the Lions in Round 7, this time the Harbour City’s biggest star dragged his side over a line in a huge Friday night performance. Franklin was a juicy $9.50 pre-game to kick five goals. But he did exactly that to singlehandedly give Sydney ($1.60 pre-game H2H favourites) a crucial win over Richmond, who they were equal with both on points and percentage prior to the big clash. The performance begs the question: Does Franklin represent value at $34 for the AFL Coleman Medal? Nine goals off leader Charlie Curnow (now $2.50 favourite), it’s not out of the realms of possibility that Franklin snares a fifth goal kicking prize. He is, however, suspended for Sydney’s crunch game against Melbourne in Round 12 after a hit on Trent Cotchin.

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